1/21/07
Today US stock market closed for Martin Luther King Holiday. Otherwise, it would be another down day. But current future indicate that US stock market is going to open much deep down for 1/22/07 trading day. It is because Asia, Australia, and European Stocks markets are trading down big time. With 5% decline in Shanghai, 7% in Germany, US stock market will suffer the worst since 9/11/01 events. I will expect to see big down day tomorrow around 500 to 1000 points intraday lose before recover some
Monday, January 21, 2008
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Near term bottom is very close
1/17/08
Dow & Nasdaq stock indexs are closed below 3/07 lows, S&P is closed below 10/06 low. Technically, near term bottom is in sight if VIX jump above 30's and closed below 30. Also, Dow & Nasdaq bullish precent indices are reaching the same level as last recession market bottom as of year 2002. Tomorrow maybe the day that DOW may trade deep down below 12000 and close all way up above positive. Then this is our recent market bottom. The longer picture is still not looking good even if stock make a bottom. Let's see if tomorrow is the turn-around day.
Dow & Nasdaq stock indexs are closed below 3/07 lows, S&P is closed below 10/06 low. Technically, near term bottom is in sight if VIX jump above 30's and closed below 30. Also, Dow & Nasdaq bullish precent indices are reaching the same level as last recession market bottom as of year 2002. Tomorrow maybe the day that DOW may trade deep down below 12000 and close all way up above positive. Then this is our recent market bottom. The longer picture is still not looking good even if stock make a bottom. Let's see if tomorrow is the turn-around day.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Recession is Here
1/16/08
All US stock indexs are closed below bar today. Since New Year, the stock market is keep going downward with no looking back. Bear is totally in control and Recession is expected. Fundamentally, Negative Consumer Spending growth, unemployment rates rising, the Fed is behind the curve are all recipe for a recession. Technically, all stock indexs barely trading above the 3/2007 lows. I would expect Dow would trade down to 12000 soon. Also, banking index are still trending downward and has broken the 16years long bullish trendline. VIX index are still not showing any extreme, so no sounding bottom is close yet.
All US stock indexs are closed below bar today. Since New Year, the stock market is keep going downward with no looking back. Bear is totally in control and Recession is expected. Fundamentally, Negative Consumer Spending growth, unemployment rates rising, the Fed is behind the curve are all recipe for a recession. Technically, all stock indexs barely trading above the 3/2007 lows. I would expect Dow would trade down to 12000 soon. Also, banking index are still trending downward and has broken the 16years long bullish trendline. VIX index are still not showing any extreme, so no sounding bottom is close yet.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Recession Fear
1/8/08
Nasdaq has closed downward 8 straight day in a row. What a Bear Run for techs!! Also, Dow was closed below 12800 offically and now is totally Bear Market Play. S & P, Dow while both is trading at 50 EMA in 15-mins Chart where is the resistance and downtrend point. 12500 may have some support for DOW, but Dow could keep going downtrend to 12000 or below. Watch out one or two days bounce retrace for US stock market but the downward pressure is not easy to run away. The BEAR is now in control despite any good news. One more point to be sure if BEAR are in control if DOW cannot bounce back above 12400 level this week.
Nasdaq has closed downward 8 straight day in a row. What a Bear Run for techs!! Also, Dow was closed below 12800 offically and now is totally Bear Market Play. S & P, Dow while both is trading at 50 EMA in 15-mins Chart where is the resistance and downtrend point. 12500 may have some support for DOW, but Dow could keep going downtrend to 12000 or below. Watch out one or two days bounce retrace for US stock market but the downward pressure is not easy to run away. The BEAR is now in control despite any good news. One more point to be sure if BEAR are in control if DOW cannot bounce back above 12400 level this week.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Worse New Year Day
1/2/08
Dow was down 220 points closed at 13044 and make its worst ever new year trading day since 1983. As I mentioned at the Christmas week, market resume downward movement and did touch the 13000 mark today. Bad ISM index and crude oil trading near 100 are both fundamental reason that US stock market produce big sell off. Technially, retest 13000 is possible for some bounce action for DOW but US stock market are heading to new trend direction within weeks. At this point, US stock market would remain going down but tomorrow DOW may trade in positive note and wait the employment report number at friday 1/4/08. Expect tomorrow has narrow trading range.
Dow was down 220 points closed at 13044 and make its worst ever new year trading day since 1983. As I mentioned at the Christmas week, market resume downward movement and did touch the 13000 mark today. Bad ISM index and crude oil trading near 100 are both fundamental reason that US stock market produce big sell off. Technially, retest 13000 is possible for some bounce action for DOW but US stock market are heading to new trend direction within weeks. At this point, US stock market would remain going down but tomorrow DOW may trade in positive note and wait the employment report number at friday 1/4/08. Expect tomorrow has narrow trading range.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Rally running out of steam
12/27/07
With Dow closed down around 190 points below 13400 level, downside risk remain intact again. Christmas eve and boxing day santa clause rally are running out of gas, all us stock indexs retrace some of recent bounce from Nov. bottom. Today action is blamed by political concern of Pakistan and weak Durable goods ecomonic number. AAPL, BIDU and GOOG are still leading the market which reduce the selling pressure since AAPL has just made all time high today. Consider another light volume trading tomorrow and see if DOW could trade above 13400 level.
With Dow closed down around 190 points below 13400 level, downside risk remain intact again. Christmas eve and boxing day santa clause rally are running out of gas, all us stock indexs retrace some of recent bounce from Nov. bottom. Today action is blamed by political concern of Pakistan and weak Durable goods ecomonic number. AAPL, BIDU and GOOG are still leading the market which reduce the selling pressure since AAPL has just made all time high today. Consider another light volume trading tomorrow and see if DOW could trade above 13400 level.
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