Big move coming very soon

2/22/08

The Dow has been trading in range this week. Technically, the DOW has formed a triangle shape started around end of 12/2007 and it shows reaching the apex of this triangle chart pattern as of end closing of today. Eventually, market either move breakout upside or breakdown in relative bigger movement. If it break upward, retest 12750 or 13000 is very possible. But, I think it will break down to retest NY composite index 8750 area(DOW 12000-12050) and more like retest 1/2008 lows area, even worse it will crash new lows to 11000 level as my primary. I have following reasoning to support my current bearish view.



The NYA index vs. its long term relative strength...has been weak that RSI index has been valued under 50(which consider is bearish) since 11/2007. Also, the inflowing/outflowing of liquidity in the market has been showing weakness in inflowing. So, the Dow/S&P chart pattern are showing in triangle formation where bulls or bears will be in control very soon.