My opinion about President Obama's Adminstration Policy

2/28/09

From the date 1/20/09 (our historic first black president Mr. Obama started to serve his term) to very early February, stock market has little stable action. Since then, stock market begun tanking more and more.
President Obama emphasis to make new policy to avert the current crisis. However, each new announcement he makes, stock market is turning against him. It is because his policies are more political concern rather than solve the root of the problem.
Cut in short, now the most important heart of US is our financial system. But most politicans are lawyers who do not know how to do their job, not even have any good idea how to run our government to cope with this economical disater. Moreover, they decline to follow good economists' suggestions. What our government has done so far is exactly the same as how Japanese government did to avert their slump back to 1989.
Now, US government is going to mix with private banking system(wasting money into AIG, C,...). If this action fail, we will lost last hope. Then, it will delaying our rebounce time.

I have no faith about President Obama Admistration policies so far. If worse goes worst, stock market will keep this long down trend to around the end of 2012. Yes, no kidding it is 2012. Of course, there will be few huge bear market bounce(sucker rallies) action in between and those would be consider another great time to short the market. I guess we do not need to wait too long to see that US cannot recover this second half of this year. Good luck to America!!

Can you find your dream car?!

2/27/09

The following post is published by other source:

Unsold cars in the world

Nissan has announced plans to cut its Sunderland workforce by 1,200. Thousands of unsold cars are stored around the factory's test track

Honda is halting production at its Swindon plant in April and May, extending the two-month closure announced before Christmas to four months. Honda and Japanese rival Toyota are both cutting production in Japan and elsewhere. Pictured, Hondas await export at a pier in Tokyo

Earlier this week Jaguar Land Rover said 450 British jobs would go

The open car storage areas in Corby , Northamptonshire, are reaching full capacity

Imported cars stored at Sheerness open storage area awaiting delivery to dealers

Newly imported cars fill the 150-acre site at the Toyota distribution centre in Long Beach , California

The build-up of imported cars at the port of Newark , New Jersey

Stocks of Ford trucks in Detroit , Michigan

New cars jam the dockside in the port of Valencia in Spain

Peugeot cars await shipment to Italian dealers at the port of Civitavecchia

Unsold cars at Avonmouth Docks near Bristol

With many manufacturers on extended Christmas shutdown, the number of cars rolling off production lines in December fell 47.5% to just 53,823

Thousands of new cars are stored on the runway at the disused Upper Heyford airbase near Bicester, Oxfordshire, on December 18, 2008.

Sales of new cars in the UK have slumped to a 12-year-low and production of cars at Honda in Swindon has been halted for a unprecedented four-month period because of the collapse in global sales and represents the longest continuous halt in production at any UK car plant. The announcement comes on a day when the EU's Industry Commissioner Guenter Verheugen warned the outlook for the European car industry was 'brutal' and predicted not all European manufacturers would survive the crisis.

Another worst February performance since 1933

2/27/09

After a horrendous January, stocks presented a like scenario for February.

The S&P's finish was its worst since the 731.54 hit at the close of Dec. 18, 1996, with its percentage decline in February proving to be the second-worst on record following the 18.4% hit that came in 1933.

After the worst January performance in its 113-year history, the Dow industrial marked the index's worst February point decline, and its second-worst percentage drop since 1933, when it lost 15.6%.

The Nasdaq decline proved its worst percentage drop since 2001, when it discarded 22.67% of its value.

With S&P closed below 741-745 area as I mentioned yesterday, remain cautious bearish is very very important. There is no landing zone until 615-645 for S&P from a technical perspective. Watch out down below as we are fall..fall..falling!!!

Citigroup Stock Chart

2/27/09

Citigroup sets record for single day trading volume, beating worldcom. Wow!! 1.86 billions shares exchange. It exhausts about one-fifth to one-sixth of NYSE total volume. Remember I mentioned this piece of clap back to 6/6/08(the last paragraph I mentioned financial stocks were going to single digits or teens) or 11/28/08 post. $1-$3 price range is insight to me. Yes, I did forecast it long time ago!! However, I need to own this gabarage picece of crap at cost of $3.25 coming from my tax $$. Why pay 15% more premium than yesterday closing price??! Government is ripping me and all of you(American taxpayers) off. I need bail out too, Mr. Obama! Can I cash my Citigroup while it can buy me nice dinner with my spouse before it trades like AIG ($0.42 as of today)??

Moving Average guiding down short term trading

2/27/09

Folks, look what C bought to you??!! Now, every American own piece of C stock now but we all pay at $3.25 per share while it closed $1.45. Look how moving average play important tool for your trading arsenal. I will post daily chart and more commentary later on.

Citigroup is control by US government now

2/27/09

Another same bail-out style of AIG makes Citigroup (C) now becoming American Bank. It is owned by Washington now as of today. However, the conversion rate is way rip off to taxpayers. Again, those politicans and wealthy people are taking away more of taxpayer money. F?#% them all!! I have no confidence on current New adminstration, New government, and New president!! We will see if the recuse action on Bank work or not. Our government admits and creates one more blackhole to suck all of us. RIP to Citigroup stockholders, C is going to trading below $1 mark soon.
Again, good luck to whoever still invest in banks stocks.

S&P daily chart

2/26/09

No surprise as market selloff early gain in afternoon session and it is another sort of inside trading day. Inverted hammer pattern today only means indecisive. Need to focus more on shorter time frame to forecast next trend.

S&P not out of wood yet

2/26/09

It is so frustrated for Bulls again. It seems the market is about holding short term bullish uptrend. But late day trading is going down just same as yesterday. 780-785 is really a resistance zone. S&P just closed above the support 750. If it breaks below, this short term rally is vaporized. It needs to rebuild it from 741-745 again. However, I am bearish about breakdown new bear market low for S&P tomorrow!! Gee, still no confirm intermediate bottom call yet for me!! I though it was 24th the day but need to visualize S&P shooting above 780 for short or at least in intra-day basis.

Dow Jones Index 30 stocks performance

2/26/09

Above there is the highlight the year to date performance of the 30 Dow members along with their 2008 performance. Performance in each year is color coded, with the worst performers highlighted in red and the best performers highlighted in green. As shown, this year has been more of the same for the Dow members, with the majority of the big decliners in 2008 seeing the biggest declines so far in 2009. Bank of America is down the most this year at -63.35%, followed closely by Citigroup at -62.44%. GE, CAT, and AA are already down more than 40% this year as well. McDonald's and Wal-Mart were 2008's only Dow winners, and they're both down about 12% this year. The only Dow stock in positive territory this year is IBM, with a measley gain of 2%. Last year the average Dow stock declined 34.4%. So far this year, the average decline is already -22%.
If January effects does not count, how about February one?! I got no data to suggest if February also donw, will the year also going tank?!

Market is in netural

2/25/09

Market is in undecided direction with little bearish bias. If S&P can breakout 780-785, market would rally to 805 easily. Otherwise, retest low of 741 is still possible.

So called Wall Street Strategist change target

2/25/09

The following is posted by Bespoke.

Strategist Price Targets: Credit Suisse is the First to Budge

Bloomberg tracks the S&P 500 price targets of the major Wall Street strategists in a weekly survey. This week, Credit Suisse was the first firm to lower its year-end price target this year, even as the market has already declined by 17%. As shown below, Credit Suisse lowered its price target from 1,050 to 920. At the start of the year, the average year-end price target suggested a gain of 16.2% for the S&P 500. Only one firm, Barclays, had a price target that suggested the index would decline for the year. With the S&P 500 down roughly 17% year to date and only one strategist lowering year-end estimates, the average strategist is now looking for a gain of 36% from current levels. Either the index has a lot of catching up to do, or strategists are going to have to once again start lowering estimates just like they did in 2008.

My comment: Are they know what model they use to forecast?!! Why those so called experts would keep changing their year end target ?? Do they have any technical knowledge behalf their forecast??! Well, look like more strategists will lower their target soon.

Intra-day 15mins chart of S&P

2/25/09

Look like the market does not like President's last night speech. S&P got trouble on 780 resistance zone. Downtrend is still intact, folks. Unless we close high ground today since it is morning trading hours now when I write this blog. However, due to the magnitude that market retrace from yesterday gains, I do not like it much. Retest 741-745 again today??! Very possible.

Bullish Engulfing Reversal

2/24/09

Major indexes are forming bullish engulfing reversal candlestick pattern(2 day reversal pattern) with heavy trading volume. It is very bullish sign for S&P which it successful retest the low of 2008 (741). However, need to watch the banking index resistance zone tomorrow to finally confirm this strong reversal signal. Would Obama Speech tonight would help ignite another rally day tomorrow??! Or the "stress test" detailing tomorrow would help? Let us watch the market tomorrow!! My last night forecast is getting little twist different than I thought. Not quite. It just that S&P not going up to break above 780-790 or even 805-815. Also, this bounce may only last to 3/2 to 3/3 date. I need one more day to see more internal data to determine if this is the intermediate bottom.

Dow 7100 Party Time

2/23/09

Wow!! DOW closed 7114. Hey it closed at 1997 level. It's back to 1997!!
What had happened in year 1997?!
1. Hong Kong returns to China
2. O. J. Simpson found liable in civil suit;
3. Nobel Prize for Economics is won by Long Term Capital Management stars Robert Merton and Myron Scholes.
4. Titanic hits theaters — other notable flix include The Full Monty, Good Will Hunting, and L.A. Confidential;
5. Ellen DeGeneres outs herself;
6. Eric Clapton wins a Grammy for Change the World
7. Skynet launched a nuclear attack on mankind;
8. J. K. Rowling’s first Harry Potter is published in the U.K.
9. Princess Diana, Jacques Cousteau, John Denver, Mother Theresa, and James Stewart all die.

One more important thing is:
Are we bottom yet??! Hahaha. It is another silly question!! Of course not.

Remember I said this downleg started on 1/7/09 (Dow closed 8769). The title is "Intermediate Term highs reached":The stock market indexes have reached the recent climax and need to pullback in short to intermediate term since beginning of this week. The above is one of the market breath chart to tell me ahead. Yes, that is what no one should long any stocks started beginning of this week.

In addition: I posted a CPCE chart to show the start of this blood slide on 2/11/09 (Dow closed 7939) title "Indecision day". I have successfully forecast this intermediate bloody sell off.

Let's see 8769-7114=1655 points away as I called since 1/7/09
And 7939-7114=825 points away as I told since 2/11/09

What do you all think this amazing forecast by my studies!!!

Back to the future 2009 to 1997

2/23/09

No follow though day after last friday hammer candlestick, so no reversal pattern, down trend still continue. But even today the S&P closed the lowest since 1997, still above the intra-day low 741 on 11/20/08. There is still little hope for Bulls. Now I offer three market direction that I could forecast based on weekly chart pattern.
Bearish case:
If S&P below 741, the target I see is around 615-625 ultimately. However, if tomorrow bounce back close above 805, it will end this intermediate down trend.
Bullish case:
If S&P does rebound tomorrow and hold the 741, also and close above 805, it has better chance go up to 925.
Bearish Trap case:
This is adding time into analysis, S&P may get below 741 and will bounce around 730-735 area til close back up to 780. Why? Time. 11/21/09-1/6/09 is uptrend rebounce, then by same amount of day trending down, it will be tomorrow 1/6/09-2/24/09. Watch over closely tomorrow!!!

Housing Price is far from bottom !!!

2/23/09

The above chart is made by Professor Shiller. And he has few key points:

• House prices are still only halfway back down to fair value.
• Prices don't usually stop at fair value.
• Obama's plan won't turn house prices around

My comment: Well, like I often cited my analysis approach, we need to see average of last 3 to 6 months data as more concrete base to predict the housing may be reaching the bottom. However, as Professor Shiller's analysis, we are far far from bottom. Good luck to folk who buy real-estate as investment now even the mortgage rate is going lower.
At the time I write this post, Dow is just breaking new fresh bear market low. I believe the damage has been done that S&P no longer sustain the support zone area 740-750.