3/7/09Although last half hour friday that market got bounce, labor market is losing jobs 14 months in a row and the unemployment rate is rising to 8.1%(I expect it will hit the higher wire 10% late this year).Now, no doubt to anyone would agree S&P index is totally under too many Wall Street Experts called definitely this Bear Market Bottom of last Novermber. F&%$ them once again. They all should responsible or held accountable for their professionalism. However, majority of them are just better than normal person. That's it. They are no more than a wish thinker. I am very very disappointed by their ability to read though the stock market action and give forecast advice to their poor clients. The breakdown now is very decisive and chances are very high that the market will not be able to have enough power to rally back above the 750.
On above weekly chart of S&P, we can also see the location of future support levels that I draw out. The next support is at 600, at the low of the medium-term retrace level in 1996. Personally and technically, I do not think 600 is an important support level. The more solid and meaningful support I see is the line drawn across the 1994 consolidation lows- around 440-460 on the S&P. Folks, remember this is a secular Bear Market and it can crash out of very oversold conditions.
Based on past week action that S&P has decisively violated very important support 750, and most likely result is that prices will continue to decline, 600 on the S&P being the close possible bear market bounce of any degree. However, long-term support(2002 low and last Novermber low) has been clearly broken, another round of panic selling can be just around the corner. As I re-emphasis again, I still no see any panic selling yet. No intermediate term bottom. Market sentiment is still remain super bearish!! Would GM file bankrupt on Sunday?! I wish they should. Let's see how Monday Obama would bring us!!
