Credit crisis getting worst

8/22/08

Financial, financial,...are all over the headline in every news source. Since the naked sell-short rule got expired at 8/12/08, there were some financial stocks value keep making new all time lows. Apparently, there is none that our US Government Agency could help to solve the sever wound that sub-prime originated mess. It is almost very sure that US Treasury is going to take over FNM & FRE. LEH is in talk as takeover target because it is no credit to raise capitals by issuing additional stocks or bonds. This is another wave of financial crisis going on. The credit crisis is 100% getting worst. Which economists were saying our credit crisis is over??! Now, the next shoe to drop is commercial real estate market. Therefore, I see no end to this financial crisis. Despite if the crude oil could go down below $100, high inflation is keep its role and making headache to Feds rate decision and monetary policy.

Intraday update for S&P

8/21/08

The chart is showing us that it is in a tight trading range. Short term is in bearish sentiment. But FRE & FNM both are short covering, it helps market to rebound higher.

Volatility index watch

8/20/08

This chart is showing us to determine where & when is the market tops & bottoms. Since year starts, it works 100% correct. So, now you know how technical help me identify where is bottom.

Minor victory for the bulls

8/20/08

As expected, bears are running out of steam today as bulls can call themselves a little victory. Volume is good. Despite continue bail out news for FNM & FRE ( which I think eventually the stock value will come to zero "0"), market could hold on. If...and really if US Government is going to bail out both GSEs, market sure would like Olympic 10meter diving motion....... Here there only 2 options that FRE & FNM can choose. First, issue more stocks to raise capitals that US government become the biggest shareholders. Or, US government going to fully take over both firms to become one of the government agency which means no more publicly traded companies...means stock value is going to zero in theory. Good luck to people who think FRE & FNM is cheap...CHEAP. CHEAP would get CHEAPER and it proves always right in BEAR market.
One more note I would like to point out here( I forget if I have ever mentioned here). There has 16 times 300+ points rally for DOW happened during bear market years 2000-2002. Also, since last year highs til today, there is 6 times 300+ points rally for DOW. However,folks, there is none 300+ points , no 300+ point rally occurred during the well known Bulls market from year 2002-2007. Do not believe or think the 300+ point rally will cure US economy mess. It is just another good short chance to whoever is BEARS..like me to make more $$$ out of your pocket. No long recommendation unless if that is the bear funds. Trade short term would be very fine. Good luck whoever still think financial is cheap to hold long term.

Uptrend line broken

8/19/08

Dow and S&P are both imaging similar pattern as the uptrend line no longer hold. However, this does not mean market need to retest the low yet. If Dow can find support around 11200-11250, there still seesaw upward motion left.

Market retests bottom channel

8/18/08

With fear arisen from FNM & FRE, financial again pull down major market indexes in red notes. Both Dow & S&P indexes are testing the lower channel support. The bearish rising wedge will eventually play out the true move. Notice the moving averages are narrowing that means big moves often originate out of low volatility or reduced range conditions, such as current markets. This is similar the pattern from March to May. Good luck to who is holding financials!! Especially, FNM & FRE, C, WM, NCC,....etc. Those are eventually going to ....you know what I mean.