6/26/08
Remember I posted the title Gravestone doji Dow, gravestone doji means indecision but with bearish candlestick single day pattern. Today, since market opens below the 11740 mark, there is nothing to say. People are blaming few factors for contributing today big loss. First, RIMM earning missed and ORCL disappointed forecast. Second, oil is climbing touch $140 mark. Third, GS gives sell rating on C and GM. In fact, GM closed at 53 years lows and C closed at 10 years lows. I guess on coming months, Dow need to take off GM as one of its component stocks if GM still trade in low teens or lower. Next support still valid for S&P is around 1265-1275. 11000 would be next mark for DOW. VIX index closed 23.93and still has not in fear zone(above 30) to indicate trusted short term bottom.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Fed cannot help anymore?
6/26/08
It is 10:30am central time here and the Dow has trading down 236 at 11580. Well, the stock market has finally showing normal with US economy expectation. Since I stated BEARISH tone from 12/2007, the stock charts were telling me more likely it was a transition from bull market to bear market. It proved again I am right about the bearish fake rally from March to May. Do anyone still believe the rate cut would help our economy? stock markets?....etc. Folks, the charts tell me the whole picture behind. Let see if market could rally all back to breakeven, if that happen so it would be good short term bottom. Technically, next level for Dow to have good support would be 11000-11200. The S&P would be around 1275. I believe it would have very good recovery rally once the S&P get bounce around 1275 level.
It is 10:30am central time here and the Dow has trading down 236 at 11580. Well, the stock market has finally showing normal with US economy expectation. Since I stated BEARISH tone from 12/2007, the stock charts were telling me more likely it was a transition from bull market to bear market. It proved again I am right about the bearish fake rally from March to May. Do anyone still believe the rate cut would help our economy? stock markets?....etc. Folks, the charts tell me the whole picture behind. Let see if market could rally all back to breakeven, if that happen so it would be good short term bottom. Technically, next level for Dow to have good support would be 11000-11200. The S&P would be around 1275. I believe it would have very good recovery rally once the S&P get bounce around 1275 level.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Gravestone Doji on DOW
6/25/08
As expected that the FOMC decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2%. I am not going to reprint the content of the FOMC decision. The closing of Dow and S&P are tellings the bearish story. Technically, Dow settled the date as gravestone doji candlestick pattern with the third trendless trading days. It means the trend is still unclear. Is 11740 is recent bottom of Dow? I do not know but soon the market would give us an answer. But I could say the stock market still remain bearish with bias going down. Since if this 3 days level support got broken(same support levels as Jan and March lows of Dow), it would be very bad. After market close, RIMM posted disappointed earning result and also lower the earning estimate for coming quarter. Well, Rimm as one of the stock market strong leader got wreck and it sure would give bearish tone on Tech stocks tomorrow. The nasdaq, tech sector has been strong recently compared with Dow, NYSE, S&P other sector indexe. Let keep wait and see how tomorrow trading day turn out.
As expected that the FOMC decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 2%. I am not going to reprint the content of the FOMC decision. The closing of Dow and S&P are tellings the bearish story. Technically, Dow settled the date as gravestone doji candlestick pattern with the third trendless trading days. It means the trend is still unclear. Is 11740 is recent bottom of Dow? I do not know but soon the market would give us an answer. But I could say the stock market still remain bearish with bias going down. Since if this 3 days level support got broken(same support levels as Jan and March lows of Dow), it would be very bad. After market close, RIMM posted disappointed earning result and also lower the earning estimate for coming quarter. Well, Rimm as one of the stock market strong leader got wreck and it sure would give bearish tone on Tech stocks tomorrow. The nasdaq, tech sector has been strong recently compared with Dow, NYSE, S&P other sector indexe. Let keep wait and see how tomorrow trading day turn out.
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Banking index bounce off lows of 2002
6/24/08
Banking index was bounce off the lows band area of 2002 (60.36-60.87) today lows is 60.01. Broker-dealers index close above recent support level. VIX ended close touching the uptrend line. So if VIX is trading below that trend line tomorrow morning, it provides some relieve for Bulls on US stock market. This FOMC meeting result most likely would be no change on interest rate. But the statement could definitely affect all market participants thought. Anyway, my opinion would be statement would be hawkish. The US dollars would go up and normally would get the market recovery from lows of 11740 area. Even if this guess correct, I am still bearish about the market. Anyway, let see if fundamental plays the day tomorrow or not. The S&P is formed high wave spin Doji star which means bulls and bears are in balance. The market still lack of direction.
Banking index was bounce off the lows band area of 2002 (60.36-60.87) today lows is 60.01. Broker-dealers index close above recent support level. VIX ended close touching the uptrend line. So if VIX is trading below that trend line tomorrow morning, it provides some relieve for Bulls on US stock market. This FOMC meeting result most likely would be no change on interest rate. But the statement could definitely affect all market participants thought. Anyway, my opinion would be statement would be hawkish. The US dollars would go up and normally would get the market recovery from lows of 11740 area. Even if this guess correct, I am still bearish about the market. Anyway, let see if fundamental plays the day tomorrow or not. The S&P is formed high wave spin Doji star which means bulls and bears are in balance. The market still lack of direction.
All times low for consumer confidence
6/24/08
The bads of high energy prices, high inflation, and a weak labor market has sent consumer confidence to the lowest levels in 16 years. Top that off with the fact that the DOW cracked the March closing lows 11740 this morning and keep floating around that level. Bernanke will need to play smartly on balancing growth and inflation. Executive recruiters expect another 175k jobs to be cut from Wall Street. It is just Wall Street, not mention about other affected industries. Fed fund futures are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hike in September. However, today's confidence numbers suggests that the market's expectations may be too optimistic. Most likely, I guess Dow could survive a bounce at 11740 level and to be waited the FOMC announcement tomorrow. The new trend may be more clear to see after 1:15pm tomorrow Chicago time. Also, this morning the Case-Shiller Home price indices declined sharply in April. All 20 large cities index was off 17.8% from the peak. This index trend tells us that housing prices are still in decline mode. There has no end to see the bottom yet. Folks, whoever want to buy any house that I suggest to wait. It is like catch a falling knife same as buying Citigroup stock all the way down. By the way, Citigroup stock value soon to make new fresh lows and going lower for the rest of this year. In additions, the VIX index is not in Fear mode yet. It could means more downside for US stock markets. Good luck on catch so called "Cheap Stocks" in your portfolio.
The bads of high energy prices, high inflation, and a weak labor market has sent consumer confidence to the lowest levels in 16 years. Top that off with the fact that the DOW cracked the March closing lows 11740 this morning and keep floating around that level. Bernanke will need to play smartly on balancing growth and inflation. Executive recruiters expect another 175k jobs to be cut from Wall Street. It is just Wall Street, not mention about other affected industries. Fed fund futures are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hike in September. However, today's confidence numbers suggests that the market's expectations may be too optimistic. Most likely, I guess Dow could survive a bounce at 11740 level and to be waited the FOMC announcement tomorrow. The new trend may be more clear to see after 1:15pm tomorrow Chicago time. Also, this morning the Case-Shiller Home price indices declined sharply in April. All 20 large cities index was off 17.8% from the peak. This index trend tells us that housing prices are still in decline mode. There has no end to see the bottom yet. Folks, whoever want to buy any house that I suggest to wait. It is like catch a falling knife same as buying Citigroup stock all the way down. By the way, Citigroup stock value soon to make new fresh lows and going lower for the rest of this year. In additions, the VIX index is not in Fear mode yet. It could means more downside for US stock markets. Good luck on catch so called "Cheap Stocks" in your portfolio.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Trendless day
6/23/08
As oil summit held past weekend, the result that Sandi is going to produce 200 thousand more per barrels per day starting July. Well, this news has no effect on today crude oil future price. Citi bank and Goldman Sachs are going to cut 10% workforce on their investments banking unit. Again, financial give pressure on today market. Technically, Nasdaq is closed at recent suuport 2380-2390. Dow and S&P both form Doji candlestick pattern after big down day friday. It kinda hints bulls and bears are battling around. I still expect narrow trading day tomorrow as all market participants are waiting the FOMC decision Wednesday. But if the Dow slide below 12740 tomorrow as well as S&P down, it would make a different story.
After market close, UPS posted their earning and announced lower earning expectation as same as Fedex. Nothing surprise if more corporations are going to lower their earning estimate on 2nd half of this year. So is the US economy and stock markets are going lower.
As oil summit held past weekend, the result that Sandi is going to produce 200 thousand more per barrels per day starting July. Well, this news has no effect on today crude oil future price. Citi bank and Goldman Sachs are going to cut 10% workforce on their investments banking unit. Again, financial give pressure on today market. Technically, Nasdaq is closed at recent suuport 2380-2390. Dow and S&P both form Doji candlestick pattern after big down day friday. It kinda hints bulls and bears are battling around. I still expect narrow trading day tomorrow as all market participants are waiting the FOMC decision Wednesday. But if the Dow slide below 12740 tomorrow as well as S&P down, it would make a different story.
After market close, UPS posted their earning and announced lower earning expectation as same as Fedex. Nothing surprise if more corporations are going to lower their earning estimate on 2nd half of this year. So is the US economy and stock markets are going lower.
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