4/3/08
Dow is buckle the negative note but only close slightly in green of 20 points. Traders and investors are waiting the bet of tomorrow big economic non-farm payroll number (estimate -60k). The true market sentiment would disclose after the number announced. If the number is much worse than the estimate ( ex. -100k or above ), market may drop 200 points or more. If the number is not far from estimate, it may provide one more sideway action trading day or breakout 12700 mark.
Technically, major indexes are formed another Doji japanese candlestick pattern and still not confirm our uptrend has officially ended.
The US currency traders and Fed monetary policy makers both are looking very close to this non-farm payroll economic figure. For last 3 recession( Year 1980-1982, 1990-1991,2001-2003), that number has shown average 13 consecutive months of job losses and the average biggest one month job data was -300k. But it may produce a bounce here but it would make more serious deterioration after this March figure. So, hold on and see.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Bernanke indicate possible recession
4/2/08
Today, Bernanke said outlook of US economy is going through a very difficult period and so the Dow close in negative territory 48 points. It seems the April Fools rally has ended. Technically,
major indexes are made star candlestick pattern as the VIX is boucing off the 200ma mark. In addition, Dow indexe has touched the upper band of bollinger band which indicate the upside rally should ended here. Tomorrow action would confirm this could be the top of this recent Bear market upside rally. After market today, Rimm posted strong earning and one of the solar stocks LDK get a big contract that push the aftermarket higher. Let see what is the opening of tomorrow market!!
If Dow open at above 100 points tomorrow, it would be very bullish and likely test 12750-12800 level. Otherwise, sideway action with bias downtrend is in play. (Personally, I think market would go down tomorrow)
Today, Bernanke said outlook of US economy is going through a very difficult period and so the Dow close in negative territory 48 points. It seems the April Fools rally has ended. Technically,
major indexes are made star candlestick pattern as the VIX is boucing off the 200ma mark. In addition, Dow indexe has touched the upper band of bollinger band which indicate the upside rally should ended here. Tomorrow action would confirm this could be the top of this recent Bear market upside rally. After market today, Rimm posted strong earning and one of the solar stocks LDK get a big contract that push the aftermarket higher. Let see what is the opening of tomorrow market!!
If Dow open at above 100 points tomorrow, it would be very bullish and likely test 12750-12800 level. Otherwise, sideway action with bias downtrend is in play. (Personally, I think market would go down tomorrow)
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
April Fool Rally
4/1/08
What a incredible rally traded today for Dow closed gain almost 400 points today!! On the bright side, it breakout the highs of last week, start with positive note for second quarter and even UBS bank going to write off huge 18 billion in their coming earning. Consider next strong resistance is around 12750 for the Dow indexes. Usually, market could break the resistance on 3rd or 4th try and let see if there has another leg up tomorrow to breakout that stronghold. Also, USD/JPY is trading above 100 and breakout 101 level early this morning which help the DOW keep rally upward today after Japanese registered the worst business confidence level for last 5 years last night.
Technically speaking, today up volume is slightly less than normal trading day and NYSE only has 30 new highs( Good healthy rally need at least 50 or even 100 new highs). In addition, VIX is touching the 200MA figure(21-22 area) which may indicate the market is close reaching top. I need to see one or 2 more days to confirm this. The strong resistance level 12750 would test if market has another leg up. To be a good trader, always need to be flexible and follow the trend. Although I am still bearish about the us economy and stock market, not surprise if Dow could breakout 12750 or higher.
P.S. Bernanke Fed chairman is going to be testified 8:30am central time. Let see how market react with his explanation of bail-out of Bear stearn....etc.
What a incredible rally traded today for Dow closed gain almost 400 points today!! On the bright side, it breakout the highs of last week, start with positive note for second quarter and even UBS bank going to write off huge 18 billion in their coming earning. Consider next strong resistance is around 12750 for the Dow indexes. Usually, market could break the resistance on 3rd or 4th try and let see if there has another leg up tomorrow to breakout that stronghold. Also, USD/JPY is trading above 100 and breakout 101 level early this morning which help the DOW keep rally upward today after Japanese registered the worst business confidence level for last 5 years last night.
Technically speaking, today up volume is slightly less than normal trading day and NYSE only has 30 new highs( Good healthy rally need at least 50 or even 100 new highs). In addition, VIX is touching the 200MA figure(21-22 area) which may indicate the market is close reaching top. I need to see one or 2 more days to confirm this. The strong resistance level 12750 would test if market has another leg up. To be a good trader, always need to be flexible and follow the trend. Although I am still bearish about the us economy and stock market, not surprise if Dow could breakout 12750 or higher.
P.S. Bernanke Fed chairman is going to be testified 8:30am central time. Let see how market react with his explanation of bail-out of Bear stearn....etc.
Monday, March 31, 2008
Fed Reform
3/31/08
Major US stock indexes seem end the downtrend which it started 3 days ago with Treasury Head
Paulson announced a New Reform for Federal banks to govern US banks and financial firms.
I want to address common mistakes that investors made. What is the purpose of Trading or Investing? The answer is very simple...to make money and keep it. Do anyone in your lifetime to know almost every mutual funds are copying what market performs?? When stock market is going up for years, so is your mutual funds performance. When stock market is going down for years, so is your mutual funds performance. Therefore, I personally suggest every investors need to learn how to trade properly in trending or consolidating market conditions. How to trade successfully? You need to learn Technical Analysis and hopefully you could find a mentor. You have to take action to change your life and you are the only one who control your vehicle, not your mutual fund manager.
I personally express my concern that US stock has been trading primarily in Bear market trend. US has already in recession no matter how you view. We have the worst housing burst in history, financial crisis since great depression. Do you think it only takes 3 months of stock correction to overcome this mess?? Do not be silly. Last housing downturn took 4 to 5 years to recover. This credit crunch has already posted the thread to our financial system that have not seen in US history. So, if you as investor do not know what to know. Then, I suggest to withdraw all your investment beside C.D. in banks. Cash is consider a trading position and the best I think in these market condition if you are not sure or do not know how to trade in downtrend or sideway market.
This friday market will show us what is next phase of this few months consolidation with downside bias since the most important economic data "non-farm payroll" will be announced.
Major US stock indexes seem end the downtrend which it started 3 days ago with Treasury Head
Paulson announced a New Reform for Federal banks to govern US banks and financial firms.
I want to address common mistakes that investors made. What is the purpose of Trading or Investing? The answer is very simple...to make money and keep it. Do anyone in your lifetime to know almost every mutual funds are copying what market performs?? When stock market is going up for years, so is your mutual funds performance. When stock market is going down for years, so is your mutual funds performance. Therefore, I personally suggest every investors need to learn how to trade properly in trending or consolidating market conditions. How to trade successfully? You need to learn Technical Analysis and hopefully you could find a mentor. You have to take action to change your life and you are the only one who control your vehicle, not your mutual fund manager.
I personally express my concern that US stock has been trading primarily in Bear market trend. US has already in recession no matter how you view. We have the worst housing burst in history, financial crisis since great depression. Do you think it only takes 3 months of stock correction to overcome this mess?? Do not be silly. Last housing downturn took 4 to 5 years to recover. This credit crunch has already posted the thread to our financial system that have not seen in US history. So, if you as investor do not know what to know. Then, I suggest to withdraw all your investment beside C.D. in banks. Cash is consider a trading position and the best I think in these market condition if you are not sure or do not know how to trade in downtrend or sideway market.
This friday market will show us what is next phase of this few months consolidation with downside bias since the most important economic data "non-farm payroll" will be announced.
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