Non-Farm Payrolls are losing 13 months in a row

2/6/09

Let’s take a closer look at the details of the January Non-Farm Payrolls report, and see what data points leap out:

• Total job losses since the recession started in December 2007: 3.6 million;

• Over the past 12 months, the number of unemployed persons has increased by 4.1 million;

• Losses over the last three months: 1.8 million (Jan = 598, Dec = 577k, Nov = 597k);

• Unemployment rate for full-time workers spiked to 8%;

• For the first time since records began in 1939, there were three consecutive months of 500k + job losses;

• Job losses were broad based, with the diffusion index down to an all-time low of 25.3%;

• Household survey showed a record 1.24 million job plunge (Since data began in 1950)

• The calendar year 2008 saw 3 Million Job Losses;

• The employment-population ratio fell to 60.5%, down from 62.7% at the beginning of the recession, — the lowest rate since 1986.

• Unemployment rate: 16-year high (1992);

• January’s payroll drop of 598,000: most since December 1974;

• Payroll Revisions for 2008 were 400,000 more than initially announced;

• The 3.5 million job loss since January 2008 is the largest 12-month decline since the government started compiling those figures in 1939;

• U-6 Marginally attached and involuntary part-time workers: 13.9% last month — up almost five percent;

• The employment-to-population ratio was the lowest since 1986.

By some broader measures, labor-market conditions are even worse than the main numbers suggest. When marginally attached and involuntary part-time workers are included, the rate of unemployed or underemployed workers actually reached 13.9% last month, up almost five percentage points from a year earlier. The employment-to-population ratio was the lowest since 1986.

Again Bearish Reversal just below moving average

2/4/09

Technical Traders are all winners since New Year Begun. Again, Bearish Reversal Candlestick pattern just appeared shy below moving average. How obvious to us as chartists to notice ahead of time!! Market gave back most of yesterday gain because Bank of America(BAC, another crap) was sky diving below $5 mark today. Where is the low?! I do not know. However, it is tossed as same as Citibank(C, another garbage). There are tons of financials and banking stocks are going to my call range $1-$3 soon if government do not have sounding plan to rescue it. Bad Bank/Good Bank will not help at all. There are only one solution to tackle the problem. Nationlized the all troubled banks. Yes, there are insolvent. No matter what you do, it does not change their fundamental. It needs to change their fundamental in order to keep floating around. Well, again good luck if you feel confidence to invest any troubled bank stocks.

One of Local bank is going to close in weeks

2/2/09

Folks, whoever has banking account with Corus banks, please withdraw your money out or at least bring down each account value below $250,000. News came out and FDIC is going to close its operation very soon. Just for information only. After all, it is just my opinion, you may re-consider my suggestion. Good Luck!

What Price are Government to buy toxic garbage?!

2/2/09

Our new government is going to use your money to buy crap assets from banks for more than they are worth, thus secretly recapitalizing the banks at your expense.

The New York Times:

[T]he wild variations on the value of many bad bank assets can be seen by looking at one mortgage-backed bond recently analyzed by a division of Standard & Poor’s, the credit rating agency.

The financial institution that owns the bond calculates the value at 97 cents on the dollar, or a mere 3 percent loss. But S.& P. estimates it is worth 87 cents, based on the current loan-default rate, and could be worth 53 cents under a bleaker situation that contemplates a doubling of defaults. But even that might be optimistic, because the bond traded recently for just 38 cents on the dollar, reflecting the even gloomier outlook of investors.

Allow us to clarify:

The same crap asset that the government will buy on your behalf has four different values:

• The carrying value: $0.97. The dreamy hallucination that the bank that is stuck with the assets is telling its shareholders it is worth. The fact that there is almost no scenario that would lead to the crap asset actually being worth this much is why no one trusts banks anymore.

• A third-party assessment of value: $0.87. S&P's sharp analysts, the ones who almost certainly rated this security AAA when it was first dumped on unsuspecting buyers, say it is worth more than 10% less than the bank says it is worth.
  

• A conservative third-party assessment of value: $0.53. What S&P estimates the crap asset is worth if the economy doesn't immediately rebound, which is about half of what the bank says it is worth.

• The market's objective assessment of value: $0.38. Unlike the bank and S&P, markets have no incentive to misrepresent the true value of an asset (or to look at it through rose-colored glasses). And the market says the asset is worth about a third of what the bank says it is worth.

So what price will the goverment's "Bad Bank" pay for that crap asset on your behalf? The details have yet to be announced, but the signs aren't encouraging.

My comment: Whether whatever the price our government pay for the garbage. It is not going to solve the root of the problem. Banks' good asset will gradually develop bad loans inside of it. Moreover, how about the commercial?! How about credit card debt?! .... Good luck America Banks. I am very very bearish about our economy, stock market, and it seems new government is acting foolish as previous government. They are all same WTC shit if they buy toxic garbage, and not put all money into creating jobs for America.

Worst of January

2/1/09

The January for S&P index is declining 8.6%. It is one of the worst stock market performance in month of January and to get start of 2009. As the Wall Street Saying " As January goes, so goes of year" What do you think?! Are we heading for much much worst year?!! I have been giving warning about the state of stock market as well as our economy. Do not expect it will getting better! It will go much worst before it comes out of the long hollow dark tunnel. Stay alert at all time. Put your money investment in preservation. Do not speculate too much on stocks, commodities,....