Thursday, December 4, 2008
Trianglar pattern now
12/4/08
Now S&P is forming triangle pattern, it means about time to see if it breakup or breakdown from here big time. Volatility is about getting crazy again. Worst than expected non-farm payroll may cause another big selloff day tomorrow or retest low on 11/21/08 ( 740-750 ). Good luck!
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Inside day, dangerous?! or bounce?!
8th Bear Market Rally since October 2007
Last week is the 8th Bear Market Rally since October 2007. They ranged in strength between 8% to 24%. Every rally bounce like the bottom has been made. But, each one saw subsequent lower low. Also, what is happening is that the bear market rallies are getting shorter. In my opinion, and as always, investors should using this kind of bear market rally as an opportunity to sell into. Or for more aggressive type, it should sell short into each bear market rallies. I just want to put emphasis here again, last week is just another sucker rally. Good trading to all.
Intraday analysis for today in 15mins timeframe
12/2/08
Now,at this current time I write this, market is trying testing 840. I am more into the second case. Resistance hit on 840,market will make new intra-day lows from here and break the 800 today. Good luck to all.
Hard Evidence Bush Administration responable for this sub-prime aftermath
The following I repost from AP(The Big Picture Blog).
A brutally damning article about the warnings the Bush administration received and ignored was published this morning by the Associated Press. The AP summed up the philosophy of the Bush White House, writing: “The administration’s blind eye to the impending crisis is emblematic of its governing philosophy, which trusted market forces and discounted the value of government intervention in the economy. Its belief ironically has ushered in the most massive government intervention since the 1930s.”
Excerpt:
The Bush administration backed off proposed crackdowns on no-money-down, interest-only mortgages years before the economy collapsed, buckling to pressure from some of the same banks that have now failed. It ignored remarkably prescient warnings that foretold the financial meltdown, according to an Associated Press review of regulatory documents.
“Expect fallout, expect foreclosures, expect horror stories,” California mortgage lender Paris Welch wrote to U.S. regulators in January 2006, about one year before the housing implosion cost her a job.
Bowing to aggressive lobbying — along with assurances from banks that the troubled mortgages were OK — regulators delayed action for nearly one year. By the time new rules were released late in 2006, the toughest of the proposed provisions were gone and the meltdown was under way.
“These mortgages have been considered more safe and sound for portfolio lenders than many fixed rate mortgages,” David Schneider, home loan president of Washington Mutual, told federal regulators in early 2006. Two years later, WaMu became the largest bank failure in U.S. history.
Bank regulators had proposed new guidelines for writing risky loans in 2005, but were rebuffed by the White House. The proposed regulations might have avoided the worst fo the housing and credit crisis, had they been enacted.
What was so especially damning was these proposals were all stripped from the final Administrative rules by the Bush White House. None required congressional approval or even the president’s signature:
• Before banks could purchase mortgages from brokers, they should verify the process to ensure buyers could afford their homes.
• Regulators told bankers exotic mortgages were often inappropriate for buyers with bad credit.
• Banks would have been required to increase efforts to verify that buyers actually had jobs and could afford houses.
• Regulators proposed a cap on risky mortgages so a string of defaults wouldn’t be crippling.
• Banks that bundled and sold mortgages were told to be sure investors knew exactly what they were buying.
• Regulators urged banks to help buyers make responsible decisions and clearly advise them that interest rates might skyrocket and huge payments might be due sooner than expected.
The banks that lobbied most aggressively against the rules reads like a who’s who of bankruptcy and FDIC conservatorship: IndyMac, Countrywide Financial, Washington Mutual, Lehman Brothers, and Downey Savings.
Up to date on bailout cost total
12/2/08
Total cost on Bailout so far up to date.
$8.5 Trillion tap already after one year time frame. Note that this amount does not include the $5.2 Trillion of FRE/FNM's portfolios.
Also, I found out interesting fact about yesterday's ISM production component. The only growth was "Paper Products". Geez, of course, we need more trees to print out Trillion of dollars from now. What a joke for US Economy.
Monday, December 1, 2008
Bears' claw in 2008
12/1/08
Today is the second worst percentage drop for S&P stock indexe so far in 2008. Notice those biggest declines were happening within last few months as the market has gotten into death spiral. This December still has about 21 trading days to go (downs/ups)?!
I have just found out that the day 1/8/08,I officially called Bear market begun which the post title as "Recession Fear". Go check and you see I made my call very earlier. If any of you has been listened to me, you will all very happy by now. The S&P was close at 1390(Dow was 12589) on 1/8/08. The all time high is 1576(Dow was 14198)). Look at today it closed at 816(Dow was 8149). My call was 186(1609 for Dow) points below from all time high. However, it has been down 574(4440 for Dow) points away far from the day I made my words until today. Wow, what an amazing early call of all time!? Yes, I feel very honored that I am good at reading the chart and make such great observation. I have successfully building my reputation thru continuing my time and effort to contribute my knowledge in writing this blog so far. The 12/9/09 will be one year celebration of my works here and I am looking forward to have more readers enjoying my insight. Good to all.
Starting December with assualt bloody selloff?!
12/1/08
Officially Recession has been announced by NBER that start the seasoned rally year end month with bloody selloff of 680 points on Dow. As the chart on the left say, (also I pointed out here last week 2) That how my studies payoff and work out. That's why I said last week:"Do not get trap by the rally" Now, all of you know the reason. If the Dow 8000 got broken(very likely), it will retest the 7500-7600. Remember the market does not have to touch the same lows on 11/20/08 in order to form double bottom. However, if it does, it would means good double bottom ( general, valid double bottom usually form in between at least 2 weeks to 6 weeks timeframe) But, let's watch out below if 7500 get broken.
Bears attack
NBER has finally determined US in recession since 12/2008
Well. That is very late call anyway that NBER has said US has been in recession since December, 2008. Folks, if any of you has kept reading my blog, the 12/2008 is exactly I started to write this blog and I already made my statement "I am Bearish about stock market and US economy". Do I foresee this mess, the answer is "no". But I know from the long term stock charts. That is the power of technical analysis. Great call for me and time has proved that I am correct again!
Are we bottom yet?! Again this question?!
12/1/08
The above charts have shown us the S&P has experienced with two major downward movement since all time high on 10/11/07. Are we bottom yet?!
There has two group of theories to answer this question.
The bearish tone is.. the sub-prime aftermath has effected and spilled over whole world economies. With rising unemployment rate, tightening credit market, and sky-rocket national debt; US will surely going to have very "hard landing". It means the stock market will going down more from here. Or, a "soft landing" that it spreads longer period of time to build the bottom from here.
The bullish tone is..the stock market has already priced in the so-far most worst news and expectation. The bottom S&P had on 11/20/08 is the bottom of this bear market. It is because the whole world governments are corporate rescuing our world economy.
Well, I hope this does answer your folks' questions. My point of view is Bearish one. We still have lots of uncertainties, no-one knows when the housing bottom will be. Most importantly, the stock market (the whole world stock markets too) is in very bearish mode. I do not see 1-2-3 basic bottom formation in any time frame. (1-2-3 is a technical term for chartists). And here I would predict the market would break 7000 on Dow soon. Next support would be 6000. But my final bottom would be 4000 points for Dow in year 2009.