6/20/08
I hate to hear lots of people using the phase "market oversold" to describe current US stock markets condition. They are all wrong to use that term and not good technicians at all. Oversold markets can keep stay being oversold in a very known period such as Bear market. The Dow/S&P both keep trade downward channel. Especially, the VIX index is not in fear territory. All this mean to me, market will go lower. Hopefully, it get nice bounce from 11650-11750 area for Dow. Otherwise, the 11000 mark is getting faster than I though of. However, I am right about the timing tops and bottoms of this bear market so far. I want to mention again the banking index here. The BKX index is testing the lows of 2002. There are only two options now: 1. The Banking index falls below the 2002 in a meltdown(brings Dow/S&P to new lows of year) 2. Holds support here with the capitulation and then reverses to the upside(makes Dow/S&P retest the 08 years lows then make good bounce). The FOMC meeting is going to be next tuesday/wednesday. I expect market would be quite before FOMC rate decision date.
Friday, June 20, 2008
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Dow 12000 support?
6/18/08
This morning, Fedex has revised again this year earning as well as year 2009 earning estimate due to sky-high fuel cost. In addition, MS the second biggest investments bank in the world has posted earning showed each of their division profit down significantly. Fifth third bank, said need fresh capital and cut large percentage of its stock dividend.Royal bank of Scotland, one of the largest bank in the world said there might be a great chance the whole world stock markets are getting to crash due to lasting high inflationary pressure all around the globe. All of these negative news that pull Dow slightly close above 12000 mark(few hundred points away from 1/08 and 3/08 lows of the year). Folks, I have said months ago, do not trust the fake rally bounce from 3/08. Now, I say this here, LEH would be next victim like BSC within months or lucky if get merge with other world big banks. WM, NCC would probably both go to FDIC failure bank list soon. The stock markets may probably going to dive after the next week FOMC meeting finish. By the time people are foolish about how this could occur, DOW would be around 11000. I make this statement with tons of fundamental data,facts as well as technical analysis reasoning behind. All Fed have done would prove it will not be working as what people thought, as well as the $600 extra bucks each person from Treasury(by the time they got it, they have already spend to their gasoline). Folks, fasten your seatbelt because market is in perfect pose to dive before Bejing Olympics get start on 8/8/2008. Good luck to everyone who is still believe what our Bush adminstration, Fed, Treasury,...etc.
This morning, Fedex has revised again this year earning as well as year 2009 earning estimate due to sky-high fuel cost. In addition, MS the second biggest investments bank in the world has posted earning showed each of their division profit down significantly. Fifth third bank, said need fresh capital and cut large percentage of its stock dividend.Royal bank of Scotland, one of the largest bank in the world said there might be a great chance the whole world stock markets are getting to crash due to lasting high inflationary pressure all around the globe. All of these negative news that pull Dow slightly close above 12000 mark(few hundred points away from 1/08 and 3/08 lows of the year). Folks, I have said months ago, do not trust the fake rally bounce from 3/08. Now, I say this here, LEH would be next victim like BSC within months or lucky if get merge with other world big banks. WM, NCC would probably both go to FDIC failure bank list soon. The stock markets may probably going to dive after the next week FOMC meeting finish. By the time people are foolish about how this could occur, DOW would be around 11000. I make this statement with tons of fundamental data,facts as well as technical analysis reasoning behind. All Fed have done would prove it will not be working as what people thought, as well as the $600 extra bucks each person from Treasury(by the time they got it, they have already spend to their gasoline). Folks, fasten your seatbelt because market is in perfect pose to dive before Bejing Olympics get start on 8/8/2008. Good luck to everyone who is still believe what our Bush adminstration, Fed, Treasury,...etc.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
TA on Oil Light Crude Future Chart
6/17/08
Today, Oil light crude future closed at 134.10(from marketwatch.com). It has been little over one week the Crude oil future got stunk the ceiling top around $139-140 per barrel. Both the RSI & MACD Hist. are showing divergence. It means the crude oil future maybe reach the recent tops. If the Crude oil future is going to trade downward near $123(which is the 50MA & lower Bolinger Band line, in addition, this is the first support band area around $123-$125), stock markets might get some relieve despite bad economic numbers. If crude oil future is breaking that mark, it is going to be great for people who are shorting the oil future. It is because the next meaningful technical support would be $110, or down more the $100(very firm support with 200 day MA mark from daily chart). My guess is Oil future due for a correction now. But would this mean the US stock market would rally? I do not think so. Let time to tell us.
Today, Oil light crude future closed at 134.10(from marketwatch.com). It has been little over one week the Crude oil future got stunk the ceiling top around $139-140 per barrel. Both the RSI & MACD Hist. are showing divergence. It means the crude oil future maybe reach the recent tops. If the Crude oil future is going to trade downward near $123(which is the 50MA & lower Bolinger Band line, in addition, this is the first support band area around $123-$125), stock markets might get some relieve despite bad economic numbers. If crude oil future is breaking that mark, it is going to be great for people who are shorting the oil future. It is because the next meaningful technical support would be $110, or down more the $100(very firm support with 200 day MA mark from daily chart). My guess is Oil future due for a correction now. But would this mean the US stock market would rally? I do not think so. Let time to tell us.
Record Oil link to Stock Market
6/17/08
Recently, stock markets perform are almost 100% co-relate to price of the oil future everyday. If oil is trading up, stock markets is going down and the opposite holds true so far. Our Feds member has showed caution on inflation problem finally and indicate cannot let this expectation keep growing. However, today's economic data PPI showed us very bad idea that the inflation indeed keep going higher (PPI showed that "Wholesale prices posted its biggest gain in 6 months). Here is the reality that inflation is continuing to increase. In May 2007 the inflation rate was 2.69% and last month (May 2008), it was 4.8%. This was year over year increase of 55.39%. At this current rate increase of inflation, it is possible for the inflation rate to increase +10% from where it is now to coming falls. (Recently, flooding is causing Iowa Agriculture price likely to go up soon) Oil is going up. Folks, who could help me out to prove the economy and stock markets could both perform well in these kind of economic environment. Our US banks are not getting out of the sub-prime mess wood yet. They are all very hunger to need fresh cash capitals but they all keep dilute the shareholders value of their investments. We have long way to suffer to get the bottom. Stay very caution and do not believe any stupid analyst who said we are BOTTOM on housing or economy or stock markets. Believe your eyes on the charts you see, the data you trust. Make your own analysis. Good luck for this witch option expiration week of trading.
Recently, stock markets perform are almost 100% co-relate to price of the oil future everyday. If oil is trading up, stock markets is going down and the opposite holds true so far. Our Feds member has showed caution on inflation problem finally and indicate cannot let this expectation keep growing. However, today's economic data PPI showed us very bad idea that the inflation indeed keep going higher (PPI showed that "Wholesale prices posted its biggest gain in 6 months). Here is the reality that inflation is continuing to increase. In May 2007 the inflation rate was 2.69% and last month (May 2008), it was 4.8%. This was year over year increase of 55.39%. At this current rate increase of inflation, it is possible for the inflation rate to increase +10% from where it is now to coming falls. (Recently, flooding is causing Iowa Agriculture price likely to go up soon) Oil is going up. Folks, who could help me out to prove the economy and stock markets could both perform well in these kind of economic environment. Our US banks are not getting out of the sub-prime mess wood yet. They are all very hunger to need fresh cash capitals but they all keep dilute the shareholders value of their investments. We have long way to suffer to get the bottom. Stay very caution and do not believe any stupid analyst who said we are BOTTOM on housing or economy or stock markets. Believe your eyes on the charts you see, the data you trust. Make your own analysis. Good luck for this witch option expiration week of trading.
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