Ready for retest

3/6/08

With Dow sitting slightly above 12000, USD/JPY is making fresh new high for JPY. Stock market is ready to retest the 1/08 lows 11650-11700 level very soon. Tomorrow, Non-farm payroll(NFP)
index will be announced 7:30am central time and estimate is +30k jobs created for Feb. If the actual number is way below the mark(on negative side I have my source say -77k), huge stock decline and probably test the 11600-11700 area. Plus,with certain technical level/condition met, stock may bounce back to build a hammer candlestick pattern. If the NFP is much better than estimate, expect market would rally around to 12300-12350 area. Last case, stock selloff huge to 11600 or maybe lower cause nasday 100 index is just barely sitting to solid support 1700 level,if it trades deeply lower to 1600-1650 then I expect we may not have good bounce rally. Also, see the USD/JPY to which level to alter the trend then market has a chance to bounce from deep selloff.
Good luck to whoever long stocks

Buffet say recession word

3/3/08

The great investor in the world Warren Buffet said US economy is already in recession today. More and more people can feel the economy is getting worse recently and I pointed that month ago that stock market index made bearish move(keep rolling down monthly). Today, Nasdaq made another lows of the year. Dow transportation index hit the good support index 8900 (Dow 12175) to end the last few days selloff. Watch Dow 12365(+/-25 pts) as next resistance tomorrow. The most important economic data would be the non-farm payroll this friday and if it falls out of expectation, market probably start another round of selloff. Although estimate predict number would be on + 30k but I find a more reliable resource that the number would be around -77k. But I still stand my view that the Dow must need test the Jan lows(11650).