3/27/09S&P is getting strong resistance at 61.8% Fib retracement zone. I would expect market will be hanging or trading sideway between 38.2% to 61.8% on days and weeks. Just another technical chart need to pay attention.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Fib level chart of S&P
3/27/09S&P is getting strong resistance at 61.8% Fib retracement zone. I would expect market will be hanging or trading sideway between 38.2% to 61.8% on days and weeks. Just another technical chart need to pay attention.
Major stock index technical charts!!!
3/27/09I am showing three different major stock indexes charts with my reasoning. The date of 3/6/09 would be very important time on going to determine on coming Bear market highs and lows and probably could indicate when would be next Bull market begins. See how this strong down leg begun closely 6 months ago by counting the date 3/6/09. Also, notice how I use the fib level to show how amazing this down legs highs and lows are located very very closely to each fib retrace percentage levels. See how powerful that technical analysis about.
Update S&P index chart with Fib retractment !!
3/27/09
Now, I guess this chart is showing really something! Wow!! All previous highs and lows are exactly matching the Fib 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% level. The most important is finding the point you started to count as high or low for Fib analysis. This is my thought to determine the Fib for this down leg at 1225 for S&P.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
One of leading Sell Signal is getting close to confirm!!
3/26/09This is it! We are very very close to this intermediate term top.
Fcuk Geithner's New Game Rule!!
3/26/09
Folks! Imagine if the Federal Reserve had been the "systemic-risk regulator" during the each bubble.
According to Greenspan in 2005 "we don't perceive that there is a national bubble", just "a little forth", and even in March 2007 Bernanke said"the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained". Are they famous and well-known economists in our life time??! But, they both do not know what they are talking about. Look at what they and government bring us in now??!
How would a systemic-risk regulator help if they miss the problem(Which almost every huge economical crisis is directly or indirectly created by our own government)? And, they keep making bigger problem each time and keep saying we need strength our regulation. F*&^ them all. Now, their so called solution is by printing more $$$ bills. That's it. What a mother f&^%er!!
I am totally opposing this idea and I think having the FDIC, OTS, Fed, state agencies, and others all providing risk oversight is unworkable. They would just mess us up with more problem.
Remember who let AIG sucking all our taxpayer money without doing any good? It is our government(whether previous republican or current idiot fools on the top). So far, new administration has pledged printing almost $3 Trillion dollars( $800 billion stimulus can create jobs, $1 Trillion for Fed to buy Treasury, and this gaint rip off $1 Trillion to buy toxic garbage from failed banks) and now proposed another $3.6 Trillion fiscal 2010 budget. I have no expectation how we get out of this loop hole. It is death spwril that our government is pulling us in. They are doing the exact same F&^% stuffs that history has told us it will fail(Follow proved Japanese rescue style about 20 years ago). The more I hear their rip off resuce plan from our current government, the more I get angry about it.
Folks! Imagine if the Federal Reserve had been the "systemic-risk regulator" during the each bubble.
According to Greenspan in 2005 "we don't perceive that there is a national bubble", just "a little forth", and even in March 2007 Bernanke said"the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained". Are they famous and well-known economists in our life time??! But, they both do not know what they are talking about. Look at what they and government bring us in now??!
How would a systemic-risk regulator help if they miss the problem(Which almost every huge economical crisis is directly or indirectly created by our own government)? And, they keep making bigger problem each time and keep saying we need strength our regulation. F*&^ them all. Now, their so called solution is by printing more $$$ bills. That's it. What a mother f&^%er!!
I am totally opposing this idea and I think having the FDIC, OTS, Fed, state agencies, and others all providing risk oversight is unworkable. They would just mess us up with more problem.
Remember who let AIG sucking all our taxpayer money without doing any good? It is our government(whether previous republican or current idiot fools on the top). So far, new administration has pledged printing almost $3 Trillion dollars( $800 billion stimulus can create jobs, $1 Trillion for Fed to buy Treasury, and this gaint rip off $1 Trillion to buy toxic garbage from failed banks) and now proposed another $3.6 Trillion fiscal 2010 budget. I have no expectation how we get out of this loop hole. It is death spwril that our government is pulling us in. They are doing the exact same F&^% stuffs that history has told us it will fail(Follow proved Japanese rescue style about 20 years ago). The more I hear their rip off resuce plan from our current government, the more I get angry about it.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Another high spin star consolidation day!!
3/25/09
Short term is in neutral. So, market can go either way. However, I am betting on bearish side. Most likely it seems we will have positive monthly close after sixth in a row down months.
Geither's Plan will fail
3/25/09
The big problem with Tim Geithner's plan to fix the banks is the same as it ever was: The gap between what banks say their assets are worth and what the market says they are worth.
More and more leaks are coming from understanding Geither's Plan (PPIP). Government wants to control private banks when they are fighting off hands from Washington. It will be very interesting to see how political effect the so call freedom financial system. We will see.
The big problem with Tim Geithner's plan to fix the banks is the same as it ever was: The gap between what banks say their assets are worth and what the market says they are worth.
When a bank says an asset is worth 60 cents and the market says it's worth 30 cents, someone has to cover that spread. The genius of Geithner's plan is that it pawns most of the cost (and most of the risk) off on the taxpayer without the taxpayer noticing.
But unless the taxpayer gets stuck with the entire spread, which is probably what Geithner is hoping, banks that sell assets will have to take massive writedowns. This will start the whole cycle of violence again.
This risk to the banks is particularly acute when dealing with whole loans that the banks currently say they have no plans to sell. These loans are often carried at 100 cents on the dollar, because loans classified as held to maturity don't have to be marked to market. Even subsidized buyers won't likely be willing to pay anywhere near 100 cents on the dollar for these loans. So, here, the writedowns could potentially be huge.
And then there's another problem:
If the banks go through the exercise of putting assets up for sale only to have the bids come in at, say, 40 cents instead of the 60 cents on the books, the banks' accountants and/or federal regulators might notice. So even if the banks recoil in horror and refuse to sell at 40 cents, someone somewhere might insist that assets now carried at 60 cents be written down to 40 cents (after all, they won't have the "temporary illiquidity discount" excuse anymore, will they?). This will blow another huge hole in the banks' balance sheets.
Given this, banks would probably be wise not to participate in Geithner's plan. Which is why the government is already talking about forcing them to:
FT: “The unspoken fear here is that selling off loan portfolios would lead to more government capital injections into major banks,” said an executive at a large bank...
Richard Bove, an analyst at Rochdale Research, wrote in a note to clients: “[The plan] will not happen because it would destroy bank capital. It might cause a bank to fail the new stress tests under way. Banks will not take this risk.”
But while banks in theory have discretion over whether to sell loans, Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, said this decision would be made “in consultation with regulators” – a sign that the authorities might put pressure on banks to sell toxic assets.
It's time to face the fact that we have already de facto nationalized the big banks--and that the way we've done it is worse than standard receivership and restructuring. The longer we remain in denial about this, the worse off we'll be. But that's another story...
The above article is written by Henry Blodget.More and more leaks are coming from understanding Geither's Plan (PPIP). Government wants to control private banks when they are fighting off hands from Washington. It will be very interesting to see how political effect the so call freedom financial system. We will see.
Big Caution!!
3/25/09
The following is posted by another well known equity technician.
The following is posted by another well known equity technician.
A simple message ... Keep an eye on the VIX.
Something is not right ... its the VIX.
First, take a look at the S&P 500's action since last September. Note that it started its severe correction at that time.
In the past week, many investors are happy with glee, thinking that a nice and safe Bull rally has started ... after all, the January/March resistance line has been broken to the upside.
Sounds good, but there is more to the story ...
Since last September, the VIX has formed a huge triangle that is coming to a breakout point soon. As of yesterday, it has NOT had a breakout. And yet, many feel as though the S&P is acting like the VIX already had a breakout to the downside (down on the VIX is market positive on the S&P).
This non-confirmation condition is a Red Flag and should be carefully watched by investors.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Consolidation Day!!
3/24/09Nothing much to comment today. However, I put one more data chart to see what would be happen on coming days.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Best rally day of year
3/23/09It seems market in sync with Bad Bank Asset Plan by Treasury. All major market indexes are rallying strong and break the 50 day average line. The 740-750 should be acted as ongoing uptrend support. Strong resistance for S&P would be 850. However, 3/21 is one of important date by using Gann's theory and also just close above upper Bolinger Band. It can be recent short term top.
History is repeating for S&P index??!
3/23/09After a fresh break for me, I am in the process to regain the movement of recent market action. However, I under-estimate this rebound strength and had said this is not an intermediate bottom on 3/6/09. It seems I am wrong. Anyway, if 3/6/09 the S&P index 666 is this intermediate term bottom, I propose above charts to look in the co-relation about last market crash to current one on S&P index. It is very clear to understand current market is repeating the same as last bear market movement in exact timing. It is because I am starting to add on Gann's theory into my studies. Gann's is one of the greatest stock forecaster in last century. His amazing skills of technical analysis is in whole new territory. He can even forecast the exact upward or downward degree movement and the date/time of such in detail grahical explantion. We will see if we have 6 months rebound then resume our primary downtrend.
Is printing $$$ can solve our mess?!
3/23/09
The new government has announced on agreement of printing more than $3 Trillion US dollar to solve the mess. Damn, are we insane?! By printing more $$$ can really resolve our current problems?! If it does, why we need so many so called experts in President Obama Cabinet?! Anyone in world can be top controller to solve this mess. You and me can be hero if printing money can diminish the crisis. I am very very disappointed by our new government action. And I am much more worry than ever what we going ahead. Yes, stock market rally because of this government action and also due to have longer bear market rally. However, I am more in belive it is another bigger bubble going on......
The new government has announced on agreement of printing more than $3 Trillion US dollar to solve the mess. Damn, are we insane?! By printing more $$$ can really resolve our current problems?! If it does, why we need so many so called experts in President Obama Cabinet?! Anyone in world can be top controller to solve this mess. You and me can be hero if printing money can diminish the crisis. I am very very disappointed by our new government action. And I am much more worry than ever what we going ahead. Yes, stock market rally because of this government action and also due to have longer bear market rally. However, I am more in belive it is another bigger bubble going on......
Nobel's Prize Economic Winner Comment on Bank Bad Asset Plan
3/23/09
The following is written by Nobel's Economic winner Paul Krugman:
The following is written by Nobel's Economic winner Paul Krugman:
Despair over financial policy
The Geithner plan has now been leaked in detail. It’s exactly the plan that was widely analyzed — and found wanting — a couple of weeks ago. The zombie ideas have won.
The Obama administration is now completely wedded to the idea that there’s nothing fundamentally wrong with the financial system — that what we’re facing is the equivalent of a run on an essentially sound bank. As Tim Duy put it, there are no bad assets, only misunderstood assets. And if we get investors to understand that toxic waste is really, truly worth much more than anyone is willing to pay for it, all our problems will be solved.
To this end the plan proposes to create funds in which private investors put in a small amount of their own money, and in return get large, non-recourse loans from the taxpayer, with which to buy bad — I mean misunderstood — assets. This is supposed to lead to fair prices because the funds will engage in competitive bidding.
But it’s immediately obvious, if you think about it, that these funds will have skewed incentives. In effect, Treasury will be creating — deliberately! — the functional equivalent of Texas S&Ls in the 1980s: financial operations with very little capital but lots of government-guaranteed liabilities. For the private investors, this is an open invitation to play heads I win, tails the taxpayers lose. So sure, these investors will be ready to pay high prices for toxic waste. After all, the stuff might be worth something; and if it isn’t, that’s someone else’s problem.
Or to put it another way, Treasury has decided that what we have is nothing but a confidence problem, which it proposes to cure by creating massive moral hazard.
This plan will produce big gains for banks that didn’t actually need any help; it will, however, do little to reassure the public about banks that are seriously undercapitalized. And I fear that when the plan fails, as it almost surely will, the administration will have shot its bolt: it won’t be able to come back to Congress for a plan that might actually work.
What an awful mess.
My comment: I am not economist. However, I know that the proposed plan is a definite rip off of our taxpayer money. Treasury offer non-recourse loan up to 85% of the total cost. That's F*&^ing insane. Now, all I can say is "God bless America!"
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