3/13/08
Gold future is trading above 1000 mark today but close at 993.80. On the currency side, EUR is making new fresh highs and JPY is breaking 100 level since year 1995 against USD. As my previous blog indicate, the DOW did open below 100 points and keep rolling down to Tuesday lows 11880, then retrace back to 12200, final close at 12145. Despite the worst retail sales number, market still could hold on that what bulls want because it proves the market sentiment has shift since Tuesday rally. Next strong resistance would be 12300, if DOW could breakout this level then watch out the 12500. I would assume CPI would be worst than estimate but market still could hold steady or even slightly upward. It is just tomorrow is friday, traders may not keep pushing upward til the close of the market.
These are the sectors has testing last summer lows, 1/2008 lows & recent lows and they are still trending upward. These are Energy, Agriculture, Mining, Metals/Steel, Food & Utility. One of the stock I like is CALM in Food sector and most likely it will breakout to 52 weeks highs very soon. Good luck trading. Market sentiment change upward and bias is up for short term(1 to 3 days at least).
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Sell on Rallies
3/12/08
Selling on Rallies are what have been happening this year. After Dow has successfully shooting thru 12200 til 12300(resistance point if using 60 mins chart), traders are selling off/taking profit that Dow close at 12110. The 12000 mark is somehow important to watch for ongoing bulls since it does have technical meaning as well as psychological round number for Dow index. What bulls hope is market need to build higher highs & higher lows & keep the rolling up above 12300 level for coming days despite bad retail number & CPI data.
On the downside, watch out the USD/JPY now trade at 101.51(4:30pm central time). If the currency pair breakdown the 101.40 once Tokyo start trading(7:00pm central time), it surely will give pressure to the opening of DOW tomorrow(EUR just make fresh new highs this morning). Let see how market behave with the retail number & USD/JPY curreny pair doing tomorrow.
Selling on Rallies are what have been happening this year. After Dow has successfully shooting thru 12200 til 12300(resistance point if using 60 mins chart), traders are selling off/taking profit that Dow close at 12110. The 12000 mark is somehow important to watch for ongoing bulls since it does have technical meaning as well as psychological round number for Dow index. What bulls hope is market need to build higher highs & higher lows & keep the rolling up above 12300 level for coming days despite bad retail number & CPI data.
On the downside, watch out the USD/JPY now trade at 101.51(4:30pm central time). If the currency pair breakdown the 101.40 once Tokyo start trading(7:00pm central time), it surely will give pressure to the opening of DOW tomorrow(EUR just make fresh new highs this morning). Let see how market behave with the retail number & USD/JPY curreny pair doing tomorrow.
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Feds magic
3/11/08
What a day!! Fed injects up to 200 billion in banking system to rescue the credit market. This action ignite the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq all have biggest gain day of the year. Also, worth to say is Japanese central bank may make intervention that not let the USD/JPY currency pair trading below the 8 years low of 101.40 or 100 level since BOJ did that twice for past 10 years period. Today USD/JPY jump big from 101.41 to 103.40(It is very huge move consider the time taken only 12 hours of trading in currency market)So, with Fed and BOJ help, market can perform such mixed short covering, bargain bottom fishing day. Anyway, this is short term bottom for the market for sure. First of all, banking sector index has formed double bottom, financial also form a bullish engulfing Japanese candlestick chart pattern after three black crow down days. Moreover, market breaths(Such as New highs/new lows of NYSE was hitting historical event yesterday) and put/call ratios was close at 1.48 which both mean the very short term bottom is very close. So, both fundamental and technical are shifting upward to make such a huge jump/turnaround day. Next resistance for Dow is around 12200-250.
Well, we are still in Bear market and there are lots of issue to workout before it builds the real bottom. First, Fed injects 200 billion but if banks are not lending much from Fed( Fed did this before since 12/2007 but not too much effect or help the banking system), it makes no real means for banking system or buildup the confidence again on credit market. Also, Fed would not reduce 0.75% that market need on coming Fed meeting(18th of this month) Most likely, they will lower half percent points. Also, with NFP(Non-farm payroll) data suggest US economy is into recession(For last 100 years, whenever NFP posted 2 contraction number in a row it means most likely economy is entering into recession). Let see if Fed magic works or the Bear would come back strong.
What a day!! Fed injects up to 200 billion in banking system to rescue the credit market. This action ignite the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq all have biggest gain day of the year. Also, worth to say is Japanese central bank may make intervention that not let the USD/JPY currency pair trading below the 8 years low of 101.40 or 100 level since BOJ did that twice for past 10 years period. Today USD/JPY jump big from 101.41 to 103.40(It is very huge move consider the time taken only 12 hours of trading in currency market)So, with Fed and BOJ help, market can perform such mixed short covering, bargain bottom fishing day. Anyway, this is short term bottom for the market for sure. First of all, banking sector index has formed double bottom, financial also form a bullish engulfing Japanese candlestick chart pattern after three black crow down days. Moreover, market breaths(Such as New highs/new lows of NYSE was hitting historical event yesterday) and put/call ratios was close at 1.48 which both mean the very short term bottom is very close. So, both fundamental and technical are shifting upward to make such a huge jump/turnaround day. Next resistance for Dow is around 12200-250.
Well, we are still in Bear market and there are lots of issue to workout before it builds the real bottom. First, Fed injects 200 billion but if banks are not lending much from Fed( Fed did this before since 12/2007 but not too much effect or help the banking system), it makes no real means for banking system or buildup the confidence again on credit market. Also, Fed would not reduce 0.75% that market need on coming Fed meeting(18th of this month) Most likely, they will lower half percent points. Also, with NFP(Non-farm payroll) data suggest US economy is into recession(For last 100 years, whenever NFP posted 2 contraction number in a row it means most likely economy is entering into recession). Let see if Fed magic works or the Bear would come back strong.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Finanical in deep trouble
3/10/08
Last friday the stock market did not meet my expectation that selloff hard. But my source said the non-farm payroll number(-77k) was very close to the real data posted(-63k) Today, market just keep trading what the trend saying- DOWN. FRE, FNM, C, BSC,MER,LEH,...etc are in all fresh 52weeks lows today and drag down the DOW close at 11740 ( about 100 points away from Jan lows-11650) Let see if we have buyers coming in around the top 11650 area, otherwise it will hit the next mark around 11000-11200 level. Suggest investors avoid longing any banking or financial stocks currently even it seems they are very CHEAP. I seldom give trade idea but BIDU is worth to say since this is the last daring in the Wall street. BIDU has not been trading downward with last 2 weeks significantly compare with other big names..appl...goog...rimm...fslr... Also, BIDU is forming an triangle on daily chart. If it breaksout up, it will running at least 30 points higher. If it goes the other way, very likely break 225 support and may sink much lower to 200 level. Good trading this week. Retail index and CPI are to be announced Thursday & Friday.
Last friday the stock market did not meet my expectation that selloff hard. But my source said the non-farm payroll number(-77k) was very close to the real data posted(-63k) Today, market just keep trading what the trend saying- DOWN. FRE, FNM, C, BSC,MER,LEH,...etc are in all fresh 52weeks lows today and drag down the DOW close at 11740 ( about 100 points away from Jan lows-11650) Let see if we have buyers coming in around the top 11650 area, otherwise it will hit the next mark around 11000-11200 level. Suggest investors avoid longing any banking or financial stocks currently even it seems they are very CHEAP. I seldom give trade idea but BIDU is worth to say since this is the last daring in the Wall street. BIDU has not been trading downward with last 2 weeks significantly compare with other big names..appl...goog...rimm...fslr... Also, BIDU is forming an triangle on daily chart. If it breaksout up, it will running at least 30 points higher. If it goes the other way, very likely break 225 support and may sink much lower to 200 level. Good trading this week. Retail index and CPI are to be announced Thursday & Friday.
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