4/3/09From The Chart Store, this is really good chart to show the percentage down and up since all time high for S&P back to 10/2007.
Friday, April 3, 2009
S&P % swing chart
4/3/09From The Chart Store, this is really good chart to show the percentage down and up since all time high for S&P back to 10/2007.
Stock market cheap?!
4/3/09
The above chart is courtey to dshort. As seen on data, we are far from average historical lows if you are fundamentalist. PE ratio is golden key for old folks who believe in fundamental approach to analysize stock market. More evidence support my thought that stock market will be seen below 5000 for DOW.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Gann Square of Nine
4/2/09
Notice how nicely 2009 year high 944 and bottom 668 are in the above table. Tomorrow, non-farm payroll number will ignite short term pullback?!
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Mild bullish day
4/1/09It seems bulls is keeping alive.
Let's talk back about the fcuking Geither's toxic assets plan. Now, we have two Nobel Economists said it will be failed. Now, I know the details about the plan and it is totally failure. It needs investors have at least $10 billion amount already invested in toxic securities. How many private investors out there will meet this requirement? And there lots of not make sense stuffs. Now I can declare banking, stock market and US economy is going to great recession. The worst is not over. Yes, we will see new fresh bear low for major stock market indexes in few months.
ADP employment report predict wrost JOB data this friday!!
4/1/09
It seems market is showing some strength as I write this in morning trading hours. However, earlier ADP Employment report is the ugliest one month decline since half century ago(back to 1949). Oh my goodness. If this could indicate the coming friday non-farm payroll report, it would be the worst decline ever possible. Moreover, unemployment rate would be getting close to 9.0% mark. Who ever said the worst is over will be proved to be wrong again!!
It seems market is showing some strength as I write this in morning trading hours. However, earlier ADP Employment report is the ugliest one month decline since half century ago(back to 1949). Oh my goodness. If this could indicate the coming friday non-farm payroll report, it would be the worst decline ever possible. Moreover, unemployment rate would be getting close to 9.0% mark. Who ever said the worst is over will be proved to be wrong again!!
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Whipsaw Day
3/31/09
The support line on above chart is last bulls defense. Would market keep sell off?! I guess the answer yes. However, I would bet the 760-766 can be good support for tomorrow mild pullback.
Monday, March 30, 2009
G.M. stand for?!
3/30/09
So far, we know that GM stands for:
Government Motors
Gimme Money
Anything else?!
Uptrend losing stream now!!
3/30/09
I decline to post another important chart to show how market internals said to us last friday(Remember last Thursday I post one about CPCE chart?!). Remember primary trend is our Big Bear Market. Would this indicate the recent rally is another sucker rally??! Time will tell.
Moreover, I hate our President Obama administration. Why force out CEO of GM?! GM is still individual company although it got government aids. However, it is still private company. Why our president say a word about those banks which got the TARP funds?? Are any bank's CEO got forced out?? This is different standard to banks and non-banks. F&^% our current administration. I lost my trust on our current government. So, economical and political are shitty. Good luck to America.
Government has committed over $10 Trillion
3/30/09
Economy rescue: Adding up the dollars
The government is engaged in an unprecedented - and expensive - effort to rescue the economy. Here are all the elements of the bailouts.
1$200 billion set aside in September 2008; $200 billion additional in February 2009
2At least $20 billion
3Estimated budget impact for 2009 is $120 billion
4Making Home Affordable foreclosure prevention program will get $50 billion from Treasury, $20 billion from GSEs and $5 billion from HUD.
5Includes $70 billion from TARP
6Bridge loan allocation to be reduced to not less than $25 billion once government takes stakes in life insurance units
Sources: Federal Reserve, Treasury, FDIC, CBO
Note: Figures as of March 30, 2009
2At least $20 billion
3Estimated budget impact for 2009 is $120 billion
4Making Home Affordable foreclosure prevention program will get $50 billion from Treasury, $20 billion from GSEs and $5 billion from HUD.
5Includes $70 billion from TARP
6Bridge loan allocation to be reduced to not less than $25 billion once government takes stakes in life insurance units
Sources: Federal Reserve, Treasury, FDIC, CBO
Note: Figures as of March 30, 2009
Mortgage Crisis not over yet!!
3/30/09
The following is someone's comment about "Mortgage Crisis over?!"
Things are going to get a lot wrose. I am more convinced than ever that real estate has another 25% to fall, and best case, it is dead money for another five to ten years. The New York Times produced some insightful data on inflation adjusted home prices for the last 120 years, which baselines at a $100,000 for a single family home in 1890. Few people realize how superheated the recent real estate bubble really got. Past bubbles very consistently peaked at $125,000 in 1896, 1979, and 1989. This last one peaked at $205,000 in 2005, almost double the previous record highs. And while we have dropped 34% since then, to $135,000, we haven’t even fallen to the past all time highs yet. If you look at historical lows, my call for a further 25% slump looks positively bullish. We saw lows consistently around $66,000 in 1920, 1932, and 1942. Postwar lows came in at $105,000 in 1976, 1983, and 1996. These figures suggest the best case low is down a further 28%, and the worst case is down another 51%. I think I’ll go find something else to trade.
The data is produced by NY Times. History is always repeating whether you believe or not. This time is no different. You think home price now is cheap. Think again. I would say house price keep falling to around the end of year 2010 the least. Good luck if you consider to buy your house right now.
The following is someone's comment about "Mortgage Crisis over?!"
Things are going to get a lot wrose. I am more convinced than ever that real estate has another 25% to fall, and best case, it is dead money for another five to ten years. The New York Times produced some insightful data on inflation adjusted home prices for the last 120 years, which baselines at a $100,000 for a single family home in 1890. Few people realize how superheated the recent real estate bubble really got. Past bubbles very consistently peaked at $125,000 in 1896, 1979, and 1989. This last one peaked at $205,000 in 2005, almost double the previous record highs. And while we have dropped 34% since then, to $135,000, we haven’t even fallen to the past all time highs yet. If you look at historical lows, my call for a further 25% slump looks positively bullish. We saw lows consistently around $66,000 in 1920, 1932, and 1942. Postwar lows came in at $105,000 in 1976, 1983, and 1996. These figures suggest the best case low is down a further 28%, and the worst case is down another 51%. I think I’ll go find something else to trade.
The data is produced by NY Times. History is always repeating whether you believe or not. This time is no different. You think home price now is cheap. Think again. I would say house price keep falling to around the end of year 2010 the least. Good luck if you consider to buy your house right now.
Market Value for Global Banks from 1999-2009
3/30/09
Look at above charts of Now and Then about Market Value for Global Banks have been shifting from US to China. Also, next major industrial sector is going to change is Auto as today that GM and Chryler are about falling the cliff very soon. No doubt China will be stronger nation than US in another 20 years period.
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