Who want to be the Fool ??

6/18/09

Folks, go check out my chinese blog http://www.cigstockchart.blogspot.com. Then add one more good reason on the following:

$165 billion in Treasuries for sale in the next week?

$31 billion in 3-month bills
$27 billion in 7-year notes
$40 billion in 2-year notes
$37 billion in 5-year notes
$30 billion in 6-month bills

Annualized this is $8.58 trillion dollars!

Now obviously they won't keep doing that for the next 52 weeks (one hopes) but you have to be smoking something if you think the market can continue to absorb this sort of supply and shrug it off.

My comment: Opps, big selloff is coming next week!! Watch out folks!!

Cliff Diving of State Personal Income Tax

6/17/09

Here you go! I find out which states are in trouble receiving Income tax for budget. California isn't the worst, but the state relies heavily on income taxes. Arizona is just getting crushed - and the pain is widespread. There four states has no data. Now, we get more clear on who is going to be next California. Are we going to bail all out?! I do not know. Go figure yourself!!

FDIC just release Big $$$$

6/16/09

Click to see bigger and clear!! See it and believe it!! The FDIC released the Summer 2009 Supervisory Insights today. The report includes the above table showing all the government support announced in 2008 and soon thereafter. The maximum capacity is $13.9 trillion. Yes, it is no wrong....""$13.9 Trillion"".

My interpertation of recent stock market rally

6/16/09

Since 3/6/09, us stock market has rallied up about 38% from bottom. A combination of growth or recovery optimism and inflation fear has sprung up asset markets in the past 3 months. Fundamentally, some economic data do seemed bottom. However, there are still some leading indicators are posting slower rate of contraction. Yes, Federal stimulus money is working on its way(It looks like but I do not feel it beside pumping/wasting money into varies scheme).
Technically, after close to 18months declining market, it was time due for technical rebound. The degree of this bear market rally is so intense because it has dropped so severly since Lehman Brother collapsed.
Contrary to all the market noise with different thoeries to explain this rally is real or not, there are no signs of a signifiant economic recovery. So called "green shoots" in the global economy or US economy are mostly due to inventory cycles. Print money resuce efforts may juice up growth a bit for the rest of year. Nothing suggests this is a lasting and sufficient recovery. Global stock markets are trading on imagination.
My conclusion: Do not get trap again despite majority of people saying "Economy has bottomed and we are in the way recovery" I do not believe this "BS" Time will prove those people correct or not. I am expecting another downwave coming near end of this year or beginning of next year.

States Bonds Rating Game!!!

6/15/09

What would be next to Budget shortfall like California in our so proud nation? Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Nevada, Illinois,...the list is going on. What would you all think if Federal is really going to bail out CA? Would you feel it is fair? And more states to come? Today, Whole world is reduce purchasing our nation government bonds significantly. If this condition is getting worst, who else support our debts? We are just meaning to print more and damn more money. That's it!! Print more money is the one and only one policy that folks in white house is doing. Umm...I vote for Democrat but they seems have no idea what and how to solve this mess.

Famous Financial Fancy ??!

6/15/09

This weekend's Barron's provided a mid-year update to its annual "Roundtable" report, and as the title of the article suggested, the consensus among panelists was that the market has come "too far, too fast." While that view is certainly not a minority opinion, we are confused with the logic behind it. As noted in the article,

"Many predicted at our Jan. 5 confab that the stock market, oversold and under-loved, was due for a major bounce. Now they think stock prices have overshot corporate fundamentals and a correction is in order."

So on January 5th, when the S&P 500 was at 927, the members of the Barron's Roundtable were looking for a major bounce. Now, with the S&P 500 up 2% since then, they think the market has come too far, too fast?

My comment: We all need to know what is their theory behind those bad calls for stock market?? They are very well known finanical newspaper in nation but majority of their prediction or analysis are damn shit. If you have listen to them, I believe you all always in negative terriority. As I write this, I believe market is about "Time" due for bigger correction.