Government finally step in

9/18/08

Today's action is not 100% similar to what I guess from yesterday post. But it did turn around sharply higher because US is about to create an agency to absorb the bad debts of all financial firms. In addition, SEC new short sell rule is in effect and it might even bad short sell too. Well, at this rate of emergency, there is no rational way to save the financial system. Let's off the fundamental talk right now.
Technically, Dow/S&P/Nasdaq are posted bullish engulfing candlestick pattern which is a reversal pattern. Heavy volume & VIX spike high into 42. All are must to have as a technical bottom. However, due to this extreme bearishness & financial conditions, need to see follow thru friday and Monday action to 100% confirm the lows of today is bottom. It is because tomorrow is quadruple options expire day and it surely will post high volatility.
Back to the fundamental, if US government really create an agency to help buy those "garbage debt", it surely will deepen our national debt level in huge margin and eventually it will also increase the likelihood of downgrade of our national bonds rating. It will bring our US value significant down again relative to other county's currency. Also, the real problem is in the national housing market. No one knows when is the bottom. What if the price of housing keep dropping, it is still driving US economy down for damn sure. All in all, the short term picture may look good but long term is still in trouble. Personally, if this does work out in some degree, market might have big good rally for election purpose that people with hope. But, next year, it has greater chance the market will rebuild the bear trend. Or, if this does not work,this relief package effect will be short lived and market will fall like a rock again. Let's see how this weekend turn out.

Resuce AIG fail again

9/17/08

The bottom called yesterday has proved wrong but I did say we need to see follow day action to confirm. Apparently, market is totally in panic selling today. Are we there yet? Not today, I expect an intraday reversal on a very sharp down day to mark a bottom. The target maybe possible 10300 or 10000 mark. Did anyone remember I said long term we will see 10000 mark?! It is happening now. Technical is giving me all the information so I know this would happen few months ago. Let see if my guess is right again or not.

Reversal Day but need confirm tomorrow

9/16/08

Major indexes are rallying 10 mins after Fed kept the interest rate unchange. Also, with huge trading volume, today probably is the mid-term bottom. Of course, technically, it needs follow thru day tomorrow to confirm this signal. However, with the bail out news of AIG, it looks very likely the market would jump at least 200 points tomorrow. Speaking of AIG trouble, Fed has failed again by not bailing it out at very first on Monday. Very sadly, we have lier in Treasury or in US government that keep putting taxpayers money at risk. How could AIG, FNM, FRE will ever repay the loan to US?! AIG's liabiliy is more than $1 Trillion US dollars. Now, we all americans in debt of near $16 Trillion( $10,national debt, $5 FNM & FRE's Liability, $1 AIG's book) to 3rd world countries. By then, US is going from developed country into 3rd would places. I dare to say US is already into beginning of most severe depression that the world has never experience. Good Bye to US Dollar dominance and economic power.

Lehman fail, Fed also fail too

9/15/08

Did anyone really listen or keep reading my blog since this year start?! Am I list LEH,WM,...financials are going to fail 6 months ago? I have been right much more than wrong about predicting the future of selective financial firms. Did any, any of Fed & Treasury action help calm this century financial crisis?! No matter what they did, it surely will not help at all. I keep insisting it, there is domino effect happening in our financial markets. Lack of confidence, credit crisis,...and most important the severe decline of housing market keep making this Ball getting bigger and bigger and running its power claw from the top of snowy mountain. I have said that the following many months ago: Credit crisis has just begun, the snow ball has just getting bigger and keep rolling down the hill.... I feel very richness myself because my superior market forecast is actually very accurate and also did help people skid this biggest financial crisis. Folks, if you have wondering how I could do this. Contact me asap. Good luck.
Technically, VIX is in fear zone, market will bounce very soon and mark mid-term bottom. Let see tomorrow if the excuse of rate cut would help the rebound. However, we are still in BEAR MARKET. It is still too early to end this game. There must be more banks and financial firm are getting fail. Good Luck!