10/14/08Here I repost a chart to show that there are 55% time market is in bullish state as well as 45% time market is in bearish state since 1900. Therefore, to know when the market is in bull or bear that would make you a better investor/trader.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Bull & Bear Markets for DOW since 1900
10/14/08Here I repost a chart to show that there are 55% time market is in bullish state as well as 45% time market is in bearish state since 1900. Therefore, to know when the market is in bull or bear that would make you a better investor/trader.
Out of stream yet?!
10/14/08Technically, 9800 mark of DOW is strong resistance level to break, but once we past it, it will be very bullish. However, it seems market need to retest those fib levels and reverse. The last friday low should be bottom for this scary selloff and for the rest of this year. However, all major indices are still in bad pattern and it has long time to go to break the downtrend line.
Monday, October 13, 2008
Technical view of today rally
10/13/08As the chart showed, market built a bullish morning star candlestick pattern start counted from 10/9/08-10/13/08 three days pattern. My opinion is the most the DOW could go in 10000 to 10500. That it! Jumping around 2000 to 2500 points from last friday bottom. I did not disclose the longer time frame here that suggest the next wave down will break below last friday lows of 7842. I only disclose to that chart to my client only. Do not be so happy even we have big big rally today. It is just BEAR market rally only. It is still part of the big correction ongoing. And this just solve the banking and credit crisis. The whole world economy is entering into pro-long recession. Good luck trading folks!
Historic rebound after worst week drop ever
10/13/08
What a holiday rally!! Finally, US Treasury is deciding to directly invest into equities of top banks in US. This is the bold move I have mentioned. It is much much better make sense to use $700 billions to buy garbage. Although we do not know if this plan would work or not, at least the bloodbath selloff of global stock markets has ended. We need to see how bonds market trading tomorrow in US in order to call the last friday is bottom. It seems the plan that British brings on is more welcome than others. Which raises the question, why did that clear view have to come from London rather than Washington?! It is very simple. Paulson's original plan is going to get our money into Bush, his, and others banking senior executives. Since no one knows what is the current market price of those "Garbage". The Bank could just request blank check written $100 billions and both parties can get some $billions split to share. Even I notice this sucker plan is not going to work, why not other Americans. Now, Paulson need to bend down his keen and need to follow the concept that British propose with some degree of variations. What British plan make sense is they attack the problem directly. Inject cash to whoever banks need ( buying their equities), fully support interbank lending in between, and totally backup each depositor asset. Does it seem common sense at first place?! Why our so proud of US Government is not the one who stand up and saying loud to solve our crisis few weeks ago. They are just keep playing around their naive experiment rather than really to rescue our national. They seems not care at all. Maybe they know how to do it, they are just want our $$. "WT?" our US government is shi?. I have no confidence to our nation current economic plan at all. I hope Paulson follow work is going to work. No matter what, US is 100% surely getting into economic hardship. I will post more later on with technical perspective. Good day!
What a holiday rally!! Finally, US Treasury is deciding to directly invest into equities of top banks in US. This is the bold move I have mentioned. It is much much better make sense to use $700 billions to buy garbage. Although we do not know if this plan would work or not, at least the bloodbath selloff of global stock markets has ended. We need to see how bonds market trading tomorrow in US in order to call the last friday is bottom. It seems the plan that British brings on is more welcome than others. Which raises the question, why did that clear view have to come from London rather than Washington?! It is very simple. Paulson's original plan is going to get our money into Bush, his, and others banking senior executives. Since no one knows what is the current market price of those "Garbage". The Bank could just request blank check written $100 billions and both parties can get some $billions split to share. Even I notice this sucker plan is not going to work, why not other Americans. Now, Paulson need to bend down his keen and need to follow the concept that British propose with some degree of variations. What British plan make sense is they attack the problem directly. Inject cash to whoever banks need ( buying their equities), fully support interbank lending in between, and totally backup each depositor asset. Does it seem common sense at first place?! Why our so proud of US Government is not the one who stand up and saying loud to solve our crisis few weeks ago. They are just keep playing around their naive experiment rather than really to rescue our national. They seems not care at all. Maybe they know how to do it, they are just want our $$. "WT?" our US government is shi?. I have no confidence to our nation current economic plan at all. I hope Paulson follow work is going to work. No matter what, US is 100% surely getting into economic hardship. I will post more later on with technical perspective. Good day!
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Talking the fix that finally works
10/9/08
What will that fix be?! This is the question being asked by everyone over the world now. The US government plan said that they will be injecting capital directly into banks by taking an equity stake this morning has failed to impress the markets again. The theory sounds good and somehow I feel this is a smart option announced by the US government to date so far. Unfortunately, timing continues to be the major debacle of the Bush Administration. The Bailout plan would not start running until the end of the month at earliest. The market wants a fix NOW. However, there are few answers to this. Some economists are calling for another round of coordinated rate cuts while others are calling for stimulus checks and direct loans to small business. CNBC ( the worst sucker in media ) is even talking about the Fed possibly buying equity futures, but ultimately none of these solutions solve the crisis of confidence in the banking sector. All in all, Banks are in the business of taking risk and it is THE TIME that they take on some risk and do unfreezing the credit markets. Also, as I posted before, G7 meeting is next hope. Now, the fool master Treasury Secretary Paulson is asking for an emergency G20 meeting this weekend to discuss the financial crisis. This will be the most significant G7/G20 meeting since the 1985 Plaza Accord which marked a major turning point for the US dollar. At that time there few nations attending the event agreed to intervene in the currency markets and to sell US dollars to reduce the US current account deficit and to pull the US economy out of a serious recession. Would this time could save our ( US ) mess?! It is best to see if they would intervene our currency and enough to surprise the stock markets as well. It is a possibility and let us wish it would work.
What will that fix be?! This is the question being asked by everyone over the world now. The US government plan said that they will be injecting capital directly into banks by taking an equity stake this morning has failed to impress the markets again. The theory sounds good and somehow I feel this is a smart option announced by the US government to date so far. Unfortunately, timing continues to be the major debacle of the Bush Administration. The Bailout plan would not start running until the end of the month at earliest. The market wants a fix NOW. However, there are few answers to this. Some economists are calling for another round of coordinated rate cuts while others are calling for stimulus checks and direct loans to small business. CNBC ( the worst sucker in media ) is even talking about the Fed possibly buying equity futures, but ultimately none of these solutions solve the crisis of confidence in the banking sector. All in all, Banks are in the business of taking risk and it is THE TIME that they take on some risk and do unfreezing the credit markets. Also, as I posted before, G7 meeting is next hope. Now, the fool master Treasury Secretary Paulson is asking for an emergency G20 meeting this weekend to discuss the financial crisis. This will be the most significant G7/G20 meeting since the 1985 Plaza Accord which marked a major turning point for the US dollar. At that time there few nations attending the event agreed to intervene in the currency markets and to sell US dollars to reduce the US current account deficit and to pull the US economy out of a serious recession. Would this time could save our ( US ) mess?! It is best to see if they would intervene our currency and enough to surprise the stock markets as well. It is a possibility and let us wish it would work.
Fear still in play with the 7th straight down day
10/9/08
It is another sad day today. Fear is still growing bigger. Dow closed at 8579 and has already below the Fib 76.4% level. On a biggest scale, it has chance that Dow will drop down to the 7200. In fact, this chance is getting higher. As I write this, Japan Nikki has already open down 11%. Sell-off tsunami is playing on. It is irrational and no one has any confidence at all. I noticed market keep behave opposite as Libor rate. If libor rate get stable or revise down, the market would hold and may have recovery rally. If libor rate keep going higher, market will tank. There is no meaning to give any support level technically since the market is breaking each support that I see so far. But, as a chartist/technical analysis/market strategist, next support is 8500, 8300, 8000, and 7200 ( bottom of 02 lows). However, do not rule out it could drop below 7200. Let wish the G7 nations meeting will come up some form of rescue the whole world.
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