Dow Jones Index 30 stocks performance

2/26/09

Above there is the highlight the year to date performance of the 30 Dow members along with their 2008 performance. Performance in each year is color coded, with the worst performers highlighted in red and the best performers highlighted in green. As shown, this year has been more of the same for the Dow members, with the majority of the big decliners in 2008 seeing the biggest declines so far in 2009. Bank of America is down the most this year at -63.35%, followed closely by Citigroup at -62.44%. GE, CAT, and AA are already down more than 40% this year as well. McDonald's and Wal-Mart were 2008's only Dow winners, and they're both down about 12% this year. The only Dow stock in positive territory this year is IBM, with a measley gain of 2%. Last year the average Dow stock declined 34.4%. So far this year, the average decline is already -22%.
If January effects does not count, how about February one?! I got no data to suggest if February also donw, will the year also going tank?!

Market is in netural

2/25/09

Market is in undecided direction with little bearish bias. If S&P can breakout 780-785, market would rally to 805 easily. Otherwise, retest low of 741 is still possible.

So called Wall Street Strategist change target

2/25/09

The following is posted by Bespoke.

Strategist Price Targets: Credit Suisse is the First to Budge

Bloomberg tracks the S&P 500 price targets of the major Wall Street strategists in a weekly survey. This week, Credit Suisse was the first firm to lower its year-end price target this year, even as the market has already declined by 17%. As shown below, Credit Suisse lowered its price target from 1,050 to 920. At the start of the year, the average year-end price target suggested a gain of 16.2% for the S&P 500. Only one firm, Barclays, had a price target that suggested the index would decline for the year. With the S&P 500 down roughly 17% year to date and only one strategist lowering year-end estimates, the average strategist is now looking for a gain of 36% from current levels. Either the index has a lot of catching up to do, or strategists are going to have to once again start lowering estimates just like they did in 2008.

My comment: Are they know what model they use to forecast?!! Why those so called experts would keep changing their year end target ?? Do they have any technical knowledge behalf their forecast??! Well, look like more strategists will lower their target soon.

Intra-day 15mins chart of S&P

2/25/09

Look like the market does not like President's last night speech. S&P got trouble on 780 resistance zone. Downtrend is still intact, folks. Unless we close high ground today since it is morning trading hours now when I write this blog. However, due to the magnitude that market retrace from yesterday gains, I do not like it much. Retest 741-745 again today??! Very possible.

Bullish Engulfing Reversal

2/24/09

Major indexes are forming bullish engulfing reversal candlestick pattern(2 day reversal pattern) with heavy trading volume. It is very bullish sign for S&P which it successful retest the low of 2008 (741). However, need to watch the banking index resistance zone tomorrow to finally confirm this strong reversal signal. Would Obama Speech tonight would help ignite another rally day tomorrow??! Or the "stress test" detailing tomorrow would help? Let us watch the market tomorrow!! My last night forecast is getting little twist different than I thought. Not quite. It just that S&P not going up to break above 780-790 or even 805-815. Also, this bounce may only last to 3/2 to 3/3 date. I need one more day to see more internal data to determine if this is the intermediate bottom.

Dow 7100 Party Time

2/23/09

Wow!! DOW closed 7114. Hey it closed at 1997 level. It's back to 1997!!
What had happened in year 1997?!
1. Hong Kong returns to China
2. O. J. Simpson found liable in civil suit;
3. Nobel Prize for Economics is won by Long Term Capital Management stars Robert Merton and Myron Scholes.
4. Titanic hits theaters — other notable flix include The Full Monty, Good Will Hunting, and L.A. Confidential;
5. Ellen DeGeneres outs herself;
6. Eric Clapton wins a Grammy for Change the World
7. Skynet launched a nuclear attack on mankind;
8. J. K. Rowling’s first Harry Potter is published in the U.K.
9. Princess Diana, Jacques Cousteau, John Denver, Mother Theresa, and James Stewart all die.

One more important thing is:
Are we bottom yet??! Hahaha. It is another silly question!! Of course not.

Remember I said this downleg started on 1/7/09 (Dow closed 8769). The title is "Intermediate Term highs reached":The stock market indexes have reached the recent climax and need to pullback in short to intermediate term since beginning of this week. The above is one of the market breath chart to tell me ahead. Yes, that is what no one should long any stocks started beginning of this week.

In addition: I posted a CPCE chart to show the start of this blood slide on 2/11/09 (Dow closed 7939) title "Indecision day". I have successfully forecast this intermediate bloody sell off.

Let's see 8769-7114=1655 points away as I called since 1/7/09
And 7939-7114=825 points away as I told since 2/11/09

What do you all think this amazing forecast by my studies!!!