Lier Banks keep lieing!!!

4/14/09

One more Lier banks post fake earning report. Last week, we have wondering surprise from Wells Fargo Bank said they are making $3 Billion profit in its first fiscal quarter. How the hell they are able to have record earning in current economic condition when compare with good times few years ago??! No body knows but they just did it. Again, Goldman Sachs are posting profit with $1.8 Billion and they have come up with a way to hide massive losses so wise, they change their fiscal accouting quarter counting this year omitting last year December calender month. GS just report their first quarter earning from Jan to March this year as their first quarter earning. Last December: The Orphan Month. What a clever boys job they did!! Oh, Darm!! Our SEC, government, and Obama administration ...all let our Banks telling us their fake earning profit report for this first quarter. Personally, I do not believe any earning coming from all financial frims for this quarter and next. They are all untrue. They can all report they make money. I would guess Citigroup will report profit too this coming friday instead estimate that they lose money. Fcuking our government, they keep saying it needs to tighten our financial pratice. On the other hand, changing accouting standard not to report "mark to market" rule and let each bank make up their book of business for this fiscal year. I am very very disappoint to our current administration. We are doomed.
By the way, if any folks have time tomorrow, please check out google to find out where you can all participate the "Tea Party" on Tax deadline date parade againist our current government. I may go to Chicago downtown(232 S Dearborn) tomorrow by noon. See you all there!!

All Banks are making $$$?!

4/13/09

The following I use post by Marty Chenard at stocktiming:

According to Zachs Research, full S&P 500 total net income is expected to be 27.5% lower than last year. Total net income is expected to fall 10.8% for all of 2009, after 19.0% fall in 2008. (For some investors, falling less is "an improvement" worth investing in. Hard to figure isn't it ... last year your personal checking account was minus $19,000, and this year it will be minus another $10,800 ... that's a good thing?)

Are banking problems and the economy fixed? Not by a long shot ... bank balance sheets still have a problem with toxic assets that need to get cleared off. There are still upcoming auto loans, credit cards, and commercial real estate losses that need to be recognized.

Other things not fixed? Last week showed buying in life insurance stocks ... at the SAME TIME the government will open TARP to the insurance industry? - A New York Times story, cited officials involved in the government's stress test as saying that they declared: "all 19 banks undergoing the exams will pass them.” At the same time, William Black, a former senior bank regulator and S&L prosecutor said: “The bank stress tests currently underway are “a complete sham … It’s a Potemkin model. Built to fool people.”

More things not fixed ... The government is telling GM to prepare for bankruptcy. The WSJ reported that Morgan Stanley is facing larger-than-expected losses on some leveraged loans. Berkshire Hathaway just got downgraded from AAA by Moody's, and Steve Eisman of FrontPoint Partners says that GE Capital is sitting on a bad-debt time bomb.

BUT ... we have an oversold rally with a lot of short covering. Some investors are feeling that the train is leaving the station, and they are jumping in to get on board. Contrast that with what Morgan Stanley said last week in a private note to investors ... "They warned that the bear market was not over and regarding the current rally, their decision is to sell into strength now."

Things are not fixed yet, and the most that Obama "can see" is a "glimmer of hope". Regardless, the market has been moving up. In fact, the Banking Index finally broke through a 3 week trading range on the Wells Fargo news last week. As one pit trader commented (about Wells Fargo) ... "Up over 30%? Did everyone just forget that they just took 25 billion in bailout money? Do the math ... the 3 billion they just made is only 12% of what they have to pay back. At 3 billion per quarter, it would take them just over 2 years to pay it back." Still, the Banking Index did break out.

Does all this sound confusing? That is because it is ... that is because investors are confused ... that is because even analysts are confused, that is because the market wants higher bond yields but the Fed is trying to drive them down, that is because Wall Street firms are saying that we will have a 4th. quarter turnaround while Morgan Stanley said (in a private note) that they were selling into the rally.

My comment: No matter how profitable each bank report in this earning season. They all still own toxic asset. It is still in their book. We are building bigger mess afterward. People will see what would it be after this bear market rally.

Major banks earning is on the way

4/12/09

With surprising or fake record predict earning for WFC last thursday, the market propelled forward positively. Major stock markets are rallying 5 weeks in a row after made fresh new bear market lows on 3/6/09. Short term is still bullish. Intermediate term, I need to see tomorrow action to determine if market still has stream to go up more. Moreover, GS, JPM and C are going to report their earning this coming week. I am guessing they all will post better than estimate earning since "mark to market" standard accounting rule is out of window, and regulator, government are on their side. They just report what they like and do not really need to write down any bad asset. So, it is not very trustworth earning number for banks for this quarter. But, this imply more problem afterward. Also, it gives me more belief that we will heading more several bloodbath selloff after this fake bear market rally. If anyone is making any $$ on stock market, better set tight their stop loss level or about to take your profit now.

VIX chart watch!!

4/9/09

Are we getting close to another climax run for market? Going up or down. The VIX chart is an indication for floor traders to see how volatility trading in market. It is moving inverted compare to S&P index. Time will tell what we are going. One sure thing is it is getting very close to make a turn.

Intermediate Term High met?!

4/7/09

Finally, it seems market bulls are running out of stream to go up. CPCE chart is almost making signal change as indicate market has reached intermediate term high. The above S&P index chart is showing 20 & 50 EMA get compressing together in round 800 number. This is very strong support for ongoing bulls. Let's see if it can provide good pullback entry point for this Bear market bounce.

Short term overbought again!

4/5/09

CPCE chart can determine when it would be intermediate term high. However, we are not there yet and rally continue. Technical does give me an edge but it does not mean it is 100% accurate. Also, We are in phase 2 of this bear market which is giant fake bear rally. Actually, it is normal action if you can see last recession or last bear market. It means major stock market indexes can rebounce to its 200 days moving average before next major down legs begin. The last phase of this bear market would be scarer than last Sept to March of this year. Be careful.