2/10/08
The Dow recent bounce from Jan lows to around resistance 12750 rally has been fading. So is the Nasdaq index and as well as the S&P index. This is it the final piece confirmation US stocks are trading in Bear Market. US economy is for sure into recession even President Bush & some Fed members said we are not going into any recession at all lately.
Technically speaking, when market is rallying we need more stocks marking new highs or higher highs. For meaningful bulls rally, 50+ new highs daily would do the magic, and 100+new highs daily would surely make the market in "momentum" to catch on to generate new index higher. But, the number of new highs for the US stock markets has been below 50 since the end of November 2007 and just hitting 9 new high on trading date 2/6/07 where is the end of the recent bear rally tops.
Some investors are saying that they are buying "bargains" now. They are cheap "now" if the underlying technically and fundamentally conditions are met to show a support for a new upside rally. Otherwise, bargains are likely to loss additional value and become better bargain tomorrow. So, my advise is do not buy or go long to any stocks at this moment since we have no clear picture (technically and fundamentally) that US would get out of the recession yet.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Fed does confirm recession in rate cut decision
1/30/08
Fed does make rate cut 50 basis points today to avert economy going recession. However, in my opinion, fed does reduce 125 basis point within 30 days period and this act has been proved that US economy is really Really in bad shape(even when last recession the Fed did not cut 125 basis point within such short time frame). As I mentioned yestersday, market does react the 50 basis point cut and rally from negative zone to almost 200 up points but closed below 37 at 12442. This is it and traders are waiting to see the employment report friday. Enough for US stock markets lately.
Chinese Shanghai Composite index has been on an agressive rise and has been failing to the downside since last Novermber. That downward force has not taken the index to a major critical support level. This level need to hold or the Shanghai could experience a precipitous drop from here. If that happen, it would put pressure on US stock market as well. Let us put attention on both market closely.
Hong Kong HangSeng Index need to be retest 22000 level and eventually it will test 20000 or lower to 18000 level.
Anyway, global stock markets are in a critical moment to decide it has longer bear market or not.
Fed does make rate cut 50 basis points today to avert economy going recession. However, in my opinion, fed does reduce 125 basis point within 30 days period and this act has been proved that US economy is really Really in bad shape(even when last recession the Fed did not cut 125 basis point within such short time frame). As I mentioned yestersday, market does react the 50 basis point cut and rally from negative zone to almost 200 up points but closed below 37 at 12442. This is it and traders are waiting to see the employment report friday. Enough for US stock markets lately.
Chinese Shanghai Composite index has been on an agressive rise and has been failing to the downside since last Novermber. That downward force has not taken the index to a major critical support level. This level need to hold or the Shanghai could experience a precipitous drop from here. If that happen, it would put pressure on US stock market as well. Let us put attention on both market closely.
Hong Kong HangSeng Index need to be retest 22000 level and eventually it will test 20000 or lower to 18000 level.
Anyway, global stock markets are in a critical moment to decide it has longer bear market or not.
Dead Cat Bounce rally near an end
1/29/07
Last week US stock market posted first week up since New Year began. With Fed big rate cut 75 basis point to kick in the retrace dead cat bounce rally, traders are focusing tomorrow Fed meeting results as well as the job data on this friday. At this time of market, rate cut does not help the Stock market at all. Earnings coming in so far has been mixed and reflective of the health of US economy. So, 25 basis point tomorrow, market down...even with 50 market still down. If there is 75 basis again, market will ignite upward around Dow 12800 but market will going down again within 2 days.
I personally just sold my long time investment(Mutual Funds) because the Dow stock charts show me on monthly basis that the long(started from year 1982) term trend line has been broken and more likely this bear market will last longer than dot com burst period. The reasoning is very simple because housing industry is far from bottom and our houses are biggest investment in human life time and this housing bubble burst cause the house market in the worst ever since us great depression year 1929. Good luck to people who still think US economy would get better quick and stock market will be bullish very soon.
Last week US stock market posted first week up since New Year began. With Fed big rate cut 75 basis point to kick in the retrace dead cat bounce rally, traders are focusing tomorrow Fed meeting results as well as the job data on this friday. At this time of market, rate cut does not help the Stock market at all. Earnings coming in so far has been mixed and reflective of the health of US economy. So, 25 basis point tomorrow, market down...even with 50 market still down. If there is 75 basis again, market will ignite upward around Dow 12800 but market will going down again within 2 days.
I personally just sold my long time investment(Mutual Funds) because the Dow stock charts show me on monthly basis that the long(started from year 1982) term trend line has been broken and more likely this bear market will last longer than dot com burst period. The reasoning is very simple because housing industry is far from bottom and our houses are biggest investment in human life time and this housing bubble burst cause the house market in the worst ever since us great depression year 1929. Good luck to people who still think US economy would get better quick and stock market will be bullish very soon.
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Fed resuce but it is too late
1/22/07
Before US stock market open, Fed made an suddent surprise to stock market with 75basis point cut(for last 23years fed did not reduce more than 50 basis point in one time) to avert recession. However, this act has proved that US economy has already been in recession with no doubt at all. So, it seems resuce the DOW did not make lost ground today and rally back recover opening almost 500points lose to close 128points at 11971. Well, my friends and fellows, US stock market has proved in Bear terroritory, today may act as temp bottom but we have long way to go before we have an meaningful rebound. With stock indices retract back to around 20months moving avereage, it define a strong technical resistance level for the stock. Do not trade too much to catch the bounce because it will go lower, I mean LOWER for sure. Next level is 11000 for the DOW and S&P will go lower to 1250. Good luck trading to all.
Before US stock market open, Fed made an suddent surprise to stock market with 75basis point cut(for last 23years fed did not reduce more than 50 basis point in one time) to avert recession. However, this act has proved that US economy has already been in recession with no doubt at all. So, it seems resuce the DOW did not make lost ground today and rally back recover opening almost 500points lose to close 128points at 11971. Well, my friends and fellows, US stock market has proved in Bear terroritory, today may act as temp bottom but we have long way to go before we have an meaningful rebound. With stock indices retract back to around 20months moving avereage, it define a strong technical resistance level for the stock. Do not trade too much to catch the bounce because it will go lower, I mean LOWER for sure. Next level is 11000 for the DOW and S&P will go lower to 1250. Good luck trading to all.
Monday, January 21, 2008
Worldwide Stocks Big Sell Off
1/21/07
Today US stock market closed for Martin Luther King Holiday. Otherwise, it would be another down day. But current future indicate that US stock market is going to open much deep down for 1/22/07 trading day. It is because Asia, Australia, and European Stocks markets are trading down big time. With 5% decline in Shanghai, 7% in Germany, US stock market will suffer the worst since 9/11/01 events. I will expect to see big down day tomorrow around 500 to 1000 points intraday lose before recover some
Today US stock market closed for Martin Luther King Holiday. Otherwise, it would be another down day. But current future indicate that US stock market is going to open much deep down for 1/22/07 trading day. It is because Asia, Australia, and European Stocks markets are trading down big time. With 5% decline in Shanghai, 7% in Germany, US stock market will suffer the worst since 9/11/01 events. I will expect to see big down day tomorrow around 500 to 1000 points intraday lose before recover some
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Near term bottom is very close
1/17/08
Dow & Nasdaq stock indexs are closed below 3/07 lows, S&P is closed below 10/06 low. Technically, near term bottom is in sight if VIX jump above 30's and closed below 30. Also, Dow & Nasdaq bullish precent indices are reaching the same level as last recession market bottom as of year 2002. Tomorrow maybe the day that DOW may trade deep down below 12000 and close all way up above positive. Then this is our recent market bottom. The longer picture is still not looking good even if stock make a bottom. Let's see if tomorrow is the turn-around day.
Dow & Nasdaq stock indexs are closed below 3/07 lows, S&P is closed below 10/06 low. Technically, near term bottom is in sight if VIX jump above 30's and closed below 30. Also, Dow & Nasdaq bullish precent indices are reaching the same level as last recession market bottom as of year 2002. Tomorrow maybe the day that DOW may trade deep down below 12000 and close all way up above positive. Then this is our recent market bottom. The longer picture is still not looking good even if stock make a bottom. Let's see if tomorrow is the turn-around day.
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