My interpertation of recent stock market rally

6/16/09

Since 3/6/09, us stock market has rallied up about 38% from bottom. A combination of growth or recovery optimism and inflation fear has sprung up asset markets in the past 3 months. Fundamentally, some economic data do seemed bottom. However, there are still some leading indicators are posting slower rate of contraction. Yes, Federal stimulus money is working on its way(It looks like but I do not feel it beside pumping/wasting money into varies scheme).
Technically, after close to 18months declining market, it was time due for technical rebound. The degree of this bear market rally is so intense because it has dropped so severly since Lehman Brother collapsed.
Contrary to all the market noise with different thoeries to explain this rally is real or not, there are no signs of a signifiant economic recovery. So called "green shoots" in the global economy or US economy are mostly due to inventory cycles. Print money resuce efforts may juice up growth a bit for the rest of year. Nothing suggests this is a lasting and sufficient recovery. Global stock markets are trading on imagination.
My conclusion: Do not get trap again despite majority of people saying "Economy has bottomed and we are in the way recovery" I do not believe this "BS" Time will prove those people correct or not. I am expecting another downwave coming near end of this year or beginning of next year.