Are we bottom yet?! Again this question?!

12/1/08

The above charts have shown us the S&P has experienced with two major downward movement since all time high on 10/11/07. Are we bottom yet?!
There has two group of theories to answer this question.
The bearish tone is.. the sub-prime aftermath has effected and spilled over whole world economies. With rising unemployment rate, tightening credit market, and sky-rocket national debt; US will surely going to have very "hard landing". It means the stock market will going down more from here. Or, a "soft landing" that it spreads longer period of time to build the bottom from here.
The bullish tone is..the stock market has already priced in the so-far most worst news and expectation. The bottom S&P had on 11/20/08 is the bottom of this bear market. It is because the whole world governments are corporate rescuing our world economy.

Well, I hope this does answer your folks' questions. My point of view is Bearish one. We still have lots of uncertainties, no-one knows when the housing bottom will be. Most importantly, the stock market (the whole world stock markets too) is in very bearish mode. I do not see 1-2-3 basic bottom formation in any time frame. (1-2-3 is a technical term for chartists). And here I would predict the market would break 7000 on Dow soon. Next support would be 6000. But my final bottom would be 4000 points for Dow in year 2009.