Intraday analysis for today in 15mins timeframe

12/2/08

Left side chart shows the wedge broke down. Now SPY is at 50% Fib retracement. 50% retracement normally is a cross road.

In theory, at 50% retrace level mkt can go either way. But in this case, we have major pivot 840 now becomes major resistance, and we have a gap right down below.

With US$ keep strong tonight and OIL future is trading below $48. We all know the financial sector now is under great pressure after Meredith Whitney's comments yesterday.

We have Big-3 on congress today, and also remember we have payroll number this Friday.

The next line is 0.618 Fib retracement, 800 line on SPX. This is the last defence line for bulls.

IF SPX comes down to 800 without retest 840 from here (816), then we wil have a chance to bounce from 800 to up upside (reflective bounce)

IF SPX starts bounce tomorrow to 840, if next time coming down to 800, then the 800 will not hold.

Now,at this current time I write this, market is trying testing 840. I am more into the second case. Resistance hit on 840,market will make new intra-day lows from here and break the 800 today. Good luck to all.